聚焦12月制造业：产需扩张不停歇，月末铜锌库存分道扬镳

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

聚焦12月制造业：产需扩张不停歇，月末铜锌库存分道扬镳

2025-01-14 10:43:16 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

分享到：

打印

复制链接

一、2022 年 12 月精炼锌产量剖析

经由详实调研与统计分析可知，2022 年 12 月全国 53 家冶炼厂的精炼锌产量状况凸显出诸多特性。该月平均产量紧密关联着高达 650 万吨的产能规模，原计划产量设定为 49.03 万吨，然而实际产出仅达到 46.58 万吨。尽管产量环比呈现出 0.53% 的微弱增长态势，可相较于既定计划值，仍存在 5.0% 的差距，产能利用率定格在 85.94%，并且已拟定的 1 月计划产量为 46.11 万吨。这一系列数据精准映照出此阶段精炼锌生产进程与预先期望之间存在显著偏差，而这背后实则是多元复杂要素相互交织、共同发力的结果。

二、12 月产量增长乏力的根源探究

对 12 月产量环比难以实现显著提升的缘由展开深度剖析后发现，多个关键地区的生产环节遭遇重重阻碍。西部矿业虽在中旬启动复产流程，但遗憾的是未能达成满负荷生产状态，致使产能释放受限；湖南地区的再生锌小型工厂深受成本攀升问题困扰，部分生产线因成本重压无法实现达产目标，利润空间被持续压缩，企业的生产积极性遭受重创；四川区域内的部分再生锌厂开工率低迷，未能全面开启所有生产线；云南地区的祥云飞龙企业原本设定的提产规划未能如愿落地，增产预期化为泡影；此外，甘肃、内蒙、河南、安徽等地的实际产量与计划指标也存在明显落差，或是源于设备突发故障、或是受到原料供应短缺紧张局势的牵制，诸多不利因素叠加，最终导致整体产量提升步伐迟缓，成效不彰。

三、2023 年 1 月计划产量低位徘徊的成因解析

将目光投向 2023 年 1 月，53 家冶炼厂精心规划的精炼锌计划产量仅为 46.11 万元，处于偏低的生产水平区间。细究之下，一方面，1 月期间计划内及临时性的非计划检修工作预计将对产量造成高达 3 0 万吨左右的冲击，大量生产设备停机进行维护保养，直接削减了有效的生产时间；另一方面，湖南地区的再生锌产业近乎陷入全面减停产困境，电费的持续上扬使得泸溪、沅陵等地的再生锌厂苦不堪言，沉重的成本包袱迫使企业无奈选择停产或减产策略。与此同时，云南、四川、贵州地区的部分原生锌厂以及再生锌厂还受到春假假期停产安排与非计划性检修工作的双重夹击，鑫联环保、振兴铅业、祥云飞龙等企业在春节假期及 1 月时段纷纷安排检修任务，加之四川地区除四环、宏达等少数企业外，多数炼厂纷纷放假歇业，多重不利因素相互交织、层层叠加，最终导致 1 月计划产量呈现下滑态势。

四、春节假期后炼厂产量的复苏新态势

值得庆幸的是，伴随春节假期的圆满落幕，精炼锌市场迎来了转机与希望。据相关前期初步调研所获取的信息显示，2 月计划产量数值攀升至 47.19 万吨，环比呈现出令人欣喜的上升势头。这一积极转变主要得益于节后四川、云南两地的再生锌厂坚定开启确定性复产进程，重启生产线犹如为产量增长注入一剂强心针，带来显著的增量贡献；与此同时，宏达、汉中等具备前瞻视野的企业怀揣增产预期，它们通过精细优化生产流程、大力拓宽原料采购渠道等务实举措，全力拓展产能边界；此外，湖南地区、河南地区的相关企业也审时度势，因地制宜地制定出相应的增产规划，或是基于市场需求逐步回暖、原料供应趋于稳定改善等利好因素的驱动，促使企业积极主动地调整生产策略，为后续精炼锌市场的供应格局演变带来全新契机与蓬勃活力。

免责声明
北方有色网提供的信息仅供参考，不作为决策建议，客户需自主判断决策，并自行承担相关后果。本报告版权归北方有色网所有，仅限客户自身使用。如需引用，须联系申请授权；未经书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以任何形式传播、发布、篡改本报告。北方有色网保留追究任何侵权行为法律责任的权利。

基本文件流程错误 SQL 调试

/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/public/index.php ( 0.75 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/start.php ( 0.72 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/base.php ( 2.60 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Loader.php ( 21.07 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/composer/autoload_static.php ( 3.95 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/symfony/polyfill-mbstring/bootstrap.php ( 8.26 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/ezyang/htmlpurifier/library/HTMLPurifier.composer.php ( 0.10 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/topthink/think-captcha/src/helper.php ( 1.94 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Route.php ( 60.23 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Config.php ( 6.38 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Validate.php ( 41.63 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Error.php ( 3.75 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/convention.php ( 10.37 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/App.php ( 21.51 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Request.php ( 49.78 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/config.php ( 10.17 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/database.php ( 1.96 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Hook.php ( 4.71 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/tags.php ( 0.96 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common.php ( 37.25 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Env.php ( 1.21 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/helper.php ( 17.30 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Lang.php ( 7.41 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Log.php ( 6.05 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/lang/zh-cn.php ( 11.81 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/route.php ( 4.08 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/index/controller/News.php ( 30.40 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/index/controller/Base.php ( 3.86 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Controller.php ( 6.07 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/traits/controller/Jump.php ( 4.90 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/View.php ( 6.77 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/view/driver/Think.php ( 5.64 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Template.php ( 44.90 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/template/driver/File.php ( 2.24 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/library/RedisUtil.php ( 0.83 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Cache.php ( 6.10 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/cache/driver/Redis.php ( 5.37 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/cache/Driver.php ( 5.98 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/Para.php ( 0.09 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Model.php ( 69.14 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Db.php ( 6.67 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/connector/Mysql.php ( 3.89 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/Connection.php ( 29.97 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/Query.php ( 96.74 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/builder/Mysql.php ( 4.53 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/Builder.php ( 31.55 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Debug.php ( 7.13 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/News.php ( 3.74 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/Cate.php ( 0.59 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/Admin.php ( 0.09 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/consts/NewsConst.php ( 0.28 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/IndexCate.php ( 0.45 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/consts/CommonConst.php ( 0.71 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/runtime/temp/ae754a079b49dad486f0fa457bc10d5b.php ( 139.96 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/consts/CacheConst.php ( 0.26 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Url.php ( 12.72 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Response.php ( 8.28 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/debug/Html.php ( 4.17 KB )

[ DB ] CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000466s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=ysscdb;charset=utf8mb4
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_para` [ RunTime:0.000673s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000463s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_news` [ RunTime:0.000567s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_news` WHERE `id` = 108 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000526s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_cate` [ RunTime:0.000577s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 100 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000342s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_admin` [ RunTime:0.000620s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_admin` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000385s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 13 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000405s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`title`,`url` FROM `tb_news` WHERE `cate_id` = 98 ORDER BY `submit_date` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.004571s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_index_cate` [ RunTime:0.000569s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_index_cate` WHERE `cate_aid` = 1 ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.000526s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=10 and cate_cid=27 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=113 and mode02=-1 and mode03=941 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.224642s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 10 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000385s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=11 and cate_cid=38 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=14 and area_cid=91 and mode01=184 and mode02=621 and mode03=1095 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.200005s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 11 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000526s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=12 and cate_cid=46 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=325 and mode02=-1 and mode03=1231 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.199293s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 12 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000442s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=13 and cate_cid=49 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=377 and mode02=696 and mode03=1275 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.235300s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 13 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000392s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=14 and cate_cid=54 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=419 and mode02=-1 and mode03=1400 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.215643s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 14 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000509s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_advert` [ RunTime:0.000640s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000399s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 10 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 8 [ RunTime:0.001547s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 11 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 8 [ RunTime:0.001454s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 2 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 6 [ RunTime:0.001369s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 12 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 5 [ RunTime:0.001386s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 13 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 5 [ RunTime:0.001363s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 6 [ RunTime:0.001475s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3246 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001416s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3248 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001458s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3245 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001343s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 10 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001359s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 11 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001396s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 12 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001404s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 13 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001373s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 14 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001448s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 19 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001376s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 15 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001355s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001390s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001457s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001374s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 48 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000384s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 49 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000355s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 50 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000372s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000446s ]

聚焦12月制造业：产需扩张不停歇，月末铜锌库存分道扬镳

一、2022 年 12 月精炼锌产量剖析

二、12 月产量增长乏力的根源探究

三、2023 年 1 月计划产量低位徘徊的成因解析

四、春节假期后炼厂产量的复苏新态势

有色金属报告推荐