基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

氧化铝供给转宽松，电解铝盈利迎来改善

2025-01-14 09:14:03 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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关于铝品种，我们认为：氧化铝供给边际好转，价格迎来拐点，电解铝盈利有望逐步修复。

1）氧化铝：供给好转，未来价格趋势向下。供给端，一方面在氧化铝高盈利刺激下，国内氧化铝开工维持高位，提产积极性高，同时2025年1月开始氧化铝新建产能开始陆续投放；另一方面，几内亚受影响的矿企最近开始恢复装运，进口矿供给压力有望逐步缓解。需求端，由于氧化铝价格较高，电解铝盈利转为亏损，部分产能减产，氧化铝需求有所减少。因此我们认为，在供给端逐步好转背景下，氧化铝价格迎来拐点，未来价格趋势下行。

2）电解铝：氧化铝价格迎来拐点，电解铝盈利修复逻辑开始演绎。受当前需求淡季影响，电解铝短期价格维持震荡偏弱。目前氧化铝价格拐点来临，开始加速下跌，电解铝盈利开始逐步修复。展望今年供需看，今年或将迎来电解铝短缺格局，铝价具备上涨空间，从而驱动电解铝盈利大幅改善。

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