看好利润修复，但不宜过于激进

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

看好利润修复，但不宜过于激进

2025-01-14 09:31:29 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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氧化铝的未来：价格开始示弱，远期价格或在3500元/吨，但价格的下跌过程可能比市场预期的更加艰难。氧化铝产能从来不是问题的关键，先不谈在产产能都可以超产10%来释放供给，目前市场中就已经存在了一些过量的氧化铝产能，目前在产产能8845万吨，足够满足国内的电解铝需求量，因此不需要对国内的新投放氧化铝产能过多关注。同理，污染预警导致的氧化铝停产也不那么重要。需要更多关注铝土矿的影响。

铝土矿2025年可以补足但节奏仍有不确定性。从绝对数字来看，2025年几内亚新增的2600万吨铝土矿足以补足国内对铝土矿的需求，从而帮助氧化铝供给快速释放，但值得注意的是，几内亚的基建设施以及2025年西芒杜铁矿的投产都会对其运力带来新的挑战，因此几内亚铝土矿释放可能不会像预期般乐观。因此我们虽然看跌氧化铝价格，但看多其价格韧性。

2025年供需紧平衡，2026年后缺口逐渐出现：2025年云南不停产补足50万吨左右的电解铝供应，中铝青海2025年新投产贡献10万吨的增量。因此我们预计2025年相比2024年增加60万吨的产量，达到4380万吨，增速为1.39%，同时随着产能天花板的临近，增速预计持续下降，预计2026和2027年，中国电解铝产量为4430万吨和4470万吨，增速下降至1%左右。需求端：2025年，地产可能依旧会成为拖累项，但是新能源汽车依然会成为稳定的需求增量、光伏大体维持稳定，总体我们预计需求端可以录得1.25%左右的增速。供需平衡方面：虽然在2025年由于供给释放较多会造就紧平衡局面，但是2026-2027年，中国原铝供不应求的局面大概率发生。

2025年策略：宏观影响与铜类似，可能的上涨出现在25Q1之后。氧化铝价格走弱，但不会一帆风顺，电解铝利润转好，但不宜过度激进。

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看好利润修复，但不宜过于激进

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