美联储如期“按兵不动”有色市场走势分化

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

美联储如期“按兵不动”有色市场走势分化

2025-03-20 11:02:33 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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美联储利率决议要点

维持利率不变：美联储于3月20日凌晨宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%，符合市场预期。这是自2024年9月连续三次降息后，今年第二次暂停加息。
经济与通胀预测：美联储下调2025年GDP增速预测至1.7%（原2.1%），同时上调通胀预期，预计核心PCE物价指数升至2.8%（原2.5%）。
政策信号：点阵图显示2025年仍计划降息两次（累计50个基点），但鲍威尔强调需更多数据确认通胀回落趋势，且经济前景“不确定性增加”。

有色金属市场表现

贵金属强势：
- 黄金：美联储鸽派表态叠加地缘风险，推动黄金期货主力合约涨1.02%，报704.62元/克。
- 白银：跟涨0.65%，收于8366元/吨，避险需求及工业属性双重支撑。
铜价高位震荡：
- 沪铜主力合约微涨0.44%至80620元/吨，受全球铜矿供应紧张（智利、秘鲁产量下滑）及新能源需求提振，高盛等机构预测铜价或突破1万美元/吨。
铝、锌承压：
- 铝：期货主力合约跌0.77%，报20635元/吨，受国内氧化铝新产能释放预期压制。
- 锌：跌0.38%至23840元/吨，终端消费恢复缓慢拖累价格。
锡、钴异动：
- 锡：刚果（金）比西锡矿暂停开采加剧供应担忧，沪锡期货涨0.24%，但短期受制于缅甸佤邦复产预期。
- 钴：刚果（金）出口禁令持续发酵，国内电解钴价格较2月底涨超66%，但产业链观望情绪浓厚。

关键影响因素分析

宏观政策：美联储“按兵不动”缓解美元流动性压力，但高通胀预期仍限制金属上行空间。
供需格局：
- 铜：全球矿山供应增速放缓（高盛预计2025年短缺18万吨）与新能源需求（电动汽车、电网）形成长期支撑。
- 铝：国内氧化铝产能扩张（如内蒙古新冶二期350万吨项目）加剧供应宽松。
地缘政治：刚果（金）暂停钴出口、锡矿开采中断等事件凸显资源国政策风险对价格扰动。

今日关注

国内政策：住建部推进存量房收购及城中村改造，或提振建材需求。
数据发布：中国2月70城房价数据、欧美制造业PMI初值。
行业动态：广西氧化铝企业减产检修进展、新能源汽车补贴政策落地影响。

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美联储如期“按兵不动”有色市场走势分化

美联储利率决议要点

有色金属市场表现

关键影响因素分析

今日关注

有色金属报告推荐