关税扰动下的全球铜定价权争夺与高位震荡博弈

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

关税扰动下的全球铜定价权争夺与高位震荡博弈

2025-03-25 09:21:22 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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宏观资讯：

◎中国央行：重申实施“适度宽松”货币政策，强调将根据国内外经济形势择机实施降准降息工具，并扩大跨国公司本外币一体化资金池试点至16省市，以增强跨境资金流动便利性。

◎特朗普政策动向：

对加拿大关税：特朗普称“不会屈服”于加拿大反制措施，坚持推进“对等关税”计划（4月2日生效），并暗示“经济影响短暂”。

格陵兰岛争端：再次威胁“以军事或经济手段”控制该岛，计划增派美军至皮图菲克基地，引发当地民众抵制美货潮（格陵兰社交平台“抵制组织”订阅量超1700人）。

美欧贸易摩擦：拟对欧盟葡萄酒、香槟等加征200%关税（回应欧盟对美国威士忌50%关税），法国葡萄酒出口商警告“年损失40亿欧元”，人头马君度股价跌近5% 。

◎美财长贝森特：淡化市场波动影响，称政府高支出“不可持续”，美元调整属正常周期；强调“排毒期”不意味衰退，但未透露政策调整细节。

◎美国经济数据：2月PPI环比零增长（七个月最低），服务成本下降，但核心通胀指标仍坚挺，或强化美联储观望立场。

◎美国政府停摆风险：参议院民主党领袖舒默妥协，临时支出草案通过，避免本周末政府关门。

◎俄乌局势：

普京：提议30天停火，但称需细化条款；暗示若美解除能源制裁可恢复天然气供应。

泽连斯基：指责俄方“拖延战术”；美计划加码对俄油气、银行业制裁。

产业资讯：

◎紫金矿业：2024年净利润同比增超50%至320.51亿元，营收首破3000亿元；董事长陈景河预警行业需“做好过冬准备” 。

◎铜供需格局：

必和必拓：CEO韩慕睿预警未来十年全球铜缺口达1000万吨（当前年消费量40%），主因AI数据中心（2050年需求激增6倍至300万吨/年）及能源转型驱动。

秘鲁产量：1月铜产量同比增6.9%至21.97万吨，缓解短期供应压力。

高盛预测：维持2025年Q4铜价10200美元/吨目标，称贸易摩擦或抑制溢价。

中国进口：福建龙岩试点“铜精矿转场检验”模式，1-2月进口量超1.1万吨，通关效率提升30% 。

◎铝业动态：

霍煤鸿骏：内蒙古扎哈淖尔35万吨绿电铝项目（投资67.2亿元）计划7月完成土建，12月投产。

榆林新材料：43万吨铝基新材料项目进入调试阶段，预计年中投产。

山西华兴/中润：1-2月利润同比增61%，铝液销量增34%，推动“极致经营”策略。

新疆中明喜象：1.6亿元幕墙铝单板项目预计5月投产，年产能180万平方米。

财经日历：

17:00 德国3月IFO商业景气指数

19:00 英国3月CBI零售销售差值

21:00 美国1月FHFA房价指数月率美国1月S&P/CS20座大城市房价指数年率

22:00 美国2月新屋销售总数年化美国3月谘商会消费者信心指数美国3月里奇蒙德联储制造业指数

待定中国3月MLF利率及操作规模

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关税扰动下的全球铜定价权争夺与高位震荡博弈

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