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国际锡协预计到2028年需求将超过供应

2025-01-14 09:33:37 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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近日，国际锡协高级市场分析师TomLangston在“锡投资研讨会”上强调，锡已是一种关键金属，50%的锡用于焊料，此外还应用于铅酸电池以及各类合金领域。

锡在焊料方面的应用使其与快速发展的电动汽车和太阳能产业紧密相连，据我们预测，这将推动锡的消费量从2023年的35.7万吨增至2030年的42.8万吨。包括钠离子电池在内的新技术发展，为锡需求增长带来新机遇。

国际锡协预计到2028年需求将超过供应，到2030年市场将出现1.3万吨的缺口(不考虑价格变化)。现有的锡项目储备过少，近年来投资也一直不足，远低于预估矿山产能上线所需的10.7亿美元。

国际锡协高级市场分析师TomIangston在“锡投资研讨会”上表示，在需求大幅增长的情况下，供应方面的形势更具挑战性。随着2024年接近尾声，锡行业高度集中的供应链所潜藏的风险愈发凸显。作为精锡最大出口国的印度尼西亚以及锡矿最大出口国的缅甸，都出现了严重的供应中断情况。中国和亚洲的主导地位预计将有所下降，预计到2040年矿山供应量将趋于平稳。国际锡协预计澳大利亚和欧洲的矿山供应量将大幅增长，预计从2027年起，大规模的锡矿开采将在欧洲重现。到2040年，矿山供应格局更加多元化，这预示着亚洲冶炼厂的供应保障将更为稳固。

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