锌价上冲动能不足

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

锌价上冲动能不足

2025-01-14 09:29:38 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、引言

近两周以来，有色板块整体表现偏弱，然而沪锌却呈现出不同的走势，接连上涨后又自高位回落。本文将深入分析锌市的现状及未来走势。

二、矿端供应情况

（一）供应下滑现状

今年以来，矿端供应下滑明显。Glencore、Teck、BHP 和 Mitsubishi 共同持股的 Antimina 矿山因采矿顺序改变及矿石品位下降，锌精矿产量减少。
Volcan 旗下的三座矿山在 3 月下旬暂停生产；Glencore 旗下的 McArthur River 铅锌矿因飓风暴雨影响，3 月下旬暂停生产。
MMG 的 Dugald River 矿山七八月份计划外检修停产；泰坦矿业旗下的帝国锌矿因洪涝灾害停产 4 - 8 周。

（二）新增矿山投产不及预期

Boliden 旗下的 Tara 矿山二季度复产但截至三季度末暂未出产。
刚果（金）的 Kipushi 矿山今年 6 月重启，但受低回收率及当地电力运输瓶颈问题影响，全年产量不及预期，锌精矿生产指引目标减半。
对国内供应影响较大的 Ozernoye 矿山复产时间推迟至三季度末，增量不及预期。
国内矿山增量主要来自火烧云矿山，因股权转移、基础建设等问题推迟至三季度，对国内矿端紧缺缓解有限。

（三）未来展望
国际铅锌研究小组数据显示，2024 年三季度全球锌精矿产量环比增加但同比减少。12 月矿端资源维持偏紧状态，明年随着海外及国内部分矿山增量释放，矿端供应不足压力将有所缓解，但供需格局能否实现实质性转向仍需关注矿山出产情况。

三、库存情况

（一）炼厂减产影响
由于原料偏紧及冶炼亏损，炼厂联合减产，月产下滑至 50 万吨以内，月度开工维持在偏低位置。1 - 10 月国内精炼锌累计产量累计同比减少。

（二）进口情况
因美元汇率波动较大，进口盈利窗口间接性开启，预计 11 月锌锭进口量下滑。

（三）市场成交情况
今年春节较早，部分终端企业提前备库带动订单增加，下游企业按需采买。但近期因锌价走高，下游畏高少量接货，多以消耗厂内原料库存为主。社会库存持续去化但速度放缓，且处于往年同期相对高位。

四、整体形势分析

一方面，炼厂维持减产态势，原料库存虽有回升但仍处低位，后续矿端偏紧格局难有较大改善；另一方面，加工费持续低位，锌价反弹缓慢，部分炼厂备库积极性不佳，甚至放弃冬储。原料及供给端矛盾尚存，需求端维持偏淡状态。

五、后市展望

后市锌价等待政策进一步指引，预计短期震荡偏弱整理，空单可继续持有，下方支撑位参考 24500 元 / 吨。

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锌价 上冲动能不足

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