中国宏观经济周报20250506

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

中国宏观经济周报20250506

2025-05-07 09:34:42 来源：宏观与商品责任编辑：管理员

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国内旅游消费的质变与增量并存。

一面是“反向旅游”“银发经济”等新趋势重塑市场格局，另一面是入境游订单激增130%、外国游客迷上“中国购”与农耕文化。据商务部商务大数据监测，假期全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长6.3%。假期前四天，汽车以旧换新补贴申请量超6万份，带动新车销售88亿元；消费者购买12大类家电产品356万台，带动销售119亿元；购买手机等数码产品242万件，带动销售64亿元。

4月宏观经济呈现“外需承压、内需分化、结构支撑”特征。

制造业与非制造业PMI环比双降，需求端收缩显著（新订单指数降幅超生产端），但生产端仍处相对高位（49.8%）。外需压力加剧，新出口订单指数大跌4.3pct至44.7%，后续出口增长存疑，短期“抢出口”虽支撑货运量增1.3%，但外需疲态已显现；内需韧性分化，订单指数微降2.3pct贴近荣枯线，消费品行业PMI仅降0.6pct，消费支撑力较强。结构上，基建与生产性服务业成核心支撑：土木工程业商务活动指数升6.4pct至60.9%，对冲地产拖累；生产性服务业（航空运输、信息技术等）维持高景气，托底服务业韧性。展望后期，外需不确定性随关税加码上升，扩内需政策发力下，内需对制造业支撑有望增强，需跟踪政策实效对内需的边际改善。

4月财新中国服务业PMI为七个月来最低。

5月6日公布的4月财新中国通用服务业经营活动指数（服务业PMI）录得50.7，低于3月1.2个百分点，在扩张区间降至七个月来最低。此前公布的4月财新中国制造业PMI走低0.8个百分点至50.4，为2月来最低。两大行业景气度双降，折射出国内经济复苏面临压力。服务业PMI降至七个月最低，经营活动扩张显著放缓，可能受消费需求不足、企业信心偏弱等因素影响；制造业PMI同样走低，反映出生产端动力不足，外部需求波动、内需修复不及预期或是主因。两大行业景气度下行导致综合PMI产出指数下滑，表明企业生产经营活动扩张节奏明显放缓。这意味着宏观政策需进一步发力，通过提振内需、优化营商环境等措施，稳定市场预期，促进经济增长动能修复。

美国就业市场仍具韧性。

美国劳工统计局公布最新数据显示，美国4月季调后非农就业人口增加17.7万人，远超预期的13万人；失业率方面，美国4月失业率为4.2%，与前值保持一致同时也符合市场预期。非农就业人数大超预期和失业率保持稳定，显示出美国就业市场仍具韧性。

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中国宏观经济周报20250506

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