铅产业现状与未来趋势洞察：产量、需求与交割风险

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铅产业现状与未来趋势洞察：产量、需求与交割风险

2025-01-21 09:28:11 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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在过往的若干年里，全球铅精矿产量逐渐迈向稳定态势。据分析，未来 1-3 年，铅精矿产量虽会有所增加，但持续增长的可能性较小，铅锭原料供应的增长更多要依赖废电池。由此可见，再生铅在全球铅锭产量中的占比将会进一步提高。随着中国再生铅占比不断向欧美发达国家靠近，这不仅会进一步提升再生铅在全球铅锭产量中的比重，还能推动全球铅锭产量实现稳步增长。然而，目前中国存在废电池拆解和再生铅冶炼产能严重过剩的情况，这导致废电池资源变得紧俏，不仅增加了再生铅供应受干扰的风险，还在一定阶段内推高了再生铅的成本。与此同时，国内铅锭可用于交割的货源偏少，这一问题不容忽视，将再生铅纳入交割体系已刻不容缓。

过去几年，全球铅锭消费年均增长率约为 0.6%，其中，国内消费是主要拉动力量。中国汽车、两轮和三轮电动自行车保有量较高且仍在不断增加，有力地推动了铅锭消费的增长，并且铅锭消费有进一步向铅酸电池领域集中的趋势。不过，在铅价处于高位时，碳酸锂价格却大幅下降，这使得锂电池的成本和出厂价格都显著降低。从长远角度看，锂电池在新装需求方面具有很强的竞争优势。随着新能源汽车替代传统燃油汽车的比例迅速提升，铅酸电池在汽车存量替换方面的需求量将长期处于缓慢下降的态势。

展望未来 1-3 年，预计原生铅和再生铅的产量都将进一步回升，但再生铅仍会在其中占据主导地位。在非铅电池的替代作用下，铅锭消费将逐渐进入低增长阶段，铅锭的供需关系会呈现出持续过剩的状态。但需要注意的是，如果国内再生铅不能尽快纳入交割范围，那么铅锭交割品就依然存在阶段性供应紧张的风险。

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铅产业现状与未来趋势洞察：产量、需求与交割风险

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