基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

沪锌市场供需及价格走势深度剖析

2025-01-21 09:32:29 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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沪锌市场供需及价格走势深度剖析

一、去年底至今年初沪锌价格走势回顾

去年年底，沪锌在有色金属板块中表现突出，期价强势上扬，最高触及 26000 一线上方，刷新逾两年高位，且这一强劲态势延续良久。然而，踏入今年年初，行情急转直下，迅速滑落至四个月低位，如此剧烈的价格反转背后，是供需面与情绪面的双重变化。

二、矿端供应：从紧张到边际缓解

前期供应紧张格局：去年海外矿山复产阻碍重重，矿石品位下降等问题频发，国内虽对火烧云投产寄予厚望，但实际锌矿新增产量远不及预期，内外锌矿供应持续吃紧，锌矿加工费被极度压缩，冶炼厂利润大幅缩水。与铜市不同，国内锌冶炼厂长单签约比例有限，在低加工费的现货市场中陷入真实亏损困境，矿紧压力直接传导至锭端，在 2024 年 7、8 月有消息表明国内锌冶炼厂减产超预期，相关统计数据显示全年精炼锌产量低于预期，累计同比下降近 7%，官方统计局数据也印证产量下滑态势，供应端紧张忧虑为前期锌价高位筑牢根基。
近期边际改善趋势：自去年 12 月中旬起，国内外锌矿加工费持续反弹，海关数据表明 11 月锌矿进口量环比大增近四成，彰显矿紧局面缓和。展望今年，锌矿成本下行促使利润好转，全球锌矿项目复产与新增产能逐步释放增量，矿山产出稳定性将优于 2024 年，为后续精炼锌供应改善铺垫。

三、锭端生产：检修与复产交织

去年 12 月，国内锌冶炼厂呈现检修与复产并行局面，据行业资料显示整体产量微增，1 月预计延续增产势头。尽管部分地区仍有检修减产、企业春节放假，但更多地区冶炼厂产量上升。不过，市场已现对明年锌元素过剩的交易倾向，后续需紧盯现货锌矿加工费回升、冶炼厂利润及复产动态，以防供应突变冲击市场。

四、库存因素：牵动资金情绪

前期助涨情绪：去年 11 月下旬，LME 锌注销仓单连续大幅攀升，注册仓库可用锌库存锐减至 15 万吨，注销占比超 40%，现货升水逆袭，部分合约持仓集中，同期上期所锌仓单下滑，近月合约持仓高位，持仓库存比飙升，多头受鼓舞，推动沪锌冲破 26000 高点。
后期挤仓缓解与价格回落：12 月中旬后，LME 锌注销仓单回落，沪锌仓单去化但近月合约持仓下降，挤仓情绪消散，锌价随之下落，回吐流动性溢价。当下，虽沪锌下跌，仓单仍降，近月快照显示近月合约持仓 9 万吨之上，持仓库存比高企，锭端供应受限，资金扰动风险犹存。

五、需求端：淡季与春节因素交织

外贸背景下的锌市差异：美国关税政策不明，贸易冲突隐忧笼罩，春节前外贸企业抢时出口，多数金属需求尚稳，锌市却现独特景象。
现货升水与需求淡季矛盾：沪锌现货升水持续高位，期限结构呈 back 型，源于现货库存紧张，各地流通量少。近期锌价下跌，下游补库意愿增强，但当前正值需求淡季，高升水加重企业成本，临近春节放假，需求或塌，升水有望收窄，因供应放量慢，社会库存难现大幅累库。

六、后市展望

综合而言，今年矿端有望逐步恢复，已有边际好转迹象，精炼锌产出限制减弱，市场预期供需宽松，拖累沪锌下行。当下正值传统淡季，下游平淡，但节后需求可期，短期供应增量有限，年后库存累幅或可控，鉴于低库存支撑，年初沪锌走势不宜过度悲观，后续仍需紧密跟踪供需、库存及资金情绪动态，精准把握市场脉搏。

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沪锌市场供需及价格走势深度剖析

沪锌市场供需及价格走势深度剖析

一、去年底至今年初沪锌价格走势回顾

二、矿端供应：从紧张到边际缓解

三、锭端生产：检修与复产交织

四、库存因素：牵动资金情绪

五、需求端：淡季与春节因素交织

六、后市展望

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