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新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

乙巳蛇年预焙阳极市场：成本重压下的价格逆袭与行业隐忧

2025-02-17 11:50:12 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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新岁更迭，乙巳蛇年拉开帷幕，预焙阳极市场在这全新的一年里，涨势再度来袭。山东大型电解铝企业在 2025 年 2 月敲定的预焙阳极采购基准价格为 4110 元 / 吨，相较于上月，环比上调了 85 元 / 吨。回顾近三个月，阳极价格一路高歌猛进，累计涨幅达到了 440 元 / 吨，在市场上掀起了不小的波澜。

近期，预焙阳极企业整体维持着平稳运行的态势。然而，北方部分地区的企业却受到环保限产政策的影响，产量释放短期面临一定压力，就像奔跑的骏马被勒住了缰绳。而下游铝厂则呈现出截然不同的景象，开工负荷稳定，多家铝厂还积极复产前期检修的产能，展现出蓬勃的生机。从整体供需面来看，阳极供需较前期并无太大变化，看似平静的湖面下，实则暗流涌动。这次价格上涨的主要驱动力并非来自供需关系的明显改变，而是成本面给予了强有力的支撑，成本就如同坚实的后盾，推动着价格一路上行。

从利润角度分析，以山东市场价格作为成本测算依据，在本轮结算周期内，预焙阳极的生产成本约为 4430.5 元 / 吨。与山东预焙阳极采购基准价相比，企业平均亏损约 320.5 元 / 吨。尽管预焙阳极价格在 2025 年开局就连续上涨，但价格上涨的幅度远远跟不上成本上升的速度，企业亏损局面愈发严重，犹如雪上加霜，经营压力与日俱增。

在预焙阳极的原料成本构成中，石油焦无疑占据着主导地位，其成本占比高达 77.0% ，是影响成本的关键因素。近期，国内石油焦市场涨势强劲，尤其是低硫焦表现格外突出。部分炼厂调整了产量，1 月国内石油焦产量整体虽有小幅增长，但大多是高硫普货，低硫焦产量自去年年底就开始呈下降趋势，指标货资源稀缺，在市场上供不应求。

当前，石油焦市场存在指标分布不均、资源结构失衡的问题，这已然成为市场的主要矛盾。在春节前后，下游企业积极备货及补库，市场交投氛围十分活跃，炼厂没有库存压力，港口现货库存呈震荡下行态势。低硫及指标货石油焦价格持续攀升，就像不断向上攀爬的登山者，同时也带动中高硫普货价格一同上涨。截至目前，山东市场 3B 石油焦价格已达到 4527 元 / 吨，相比 1 月初，涨幅高达 2224 元 / 吨；3C 石油焦当前价格为 3553 元 / 吨，较 1 月初上涨了 1496 元 / 吨；华东市场 3B 石油焦当前价格为 3810 元 / 吨，较 1 月初上涨 1690 元 / 吨。

煤沥青在预焙阳极成本中占比 16.9%，同样不容忽视。1 月开始，国内高温煤焦油行业开工率下降，供应量减少，市场供需出现阶段性紧张，煤焦油价格持续上涨。深加工企业整体开工负荷也呈下滑趋势，煤沥青现货供应紧张。多重因素共同作用，推动煤沥青现货价格上涨。

春节过后，虽然深加工企业陆续复产，但短期内煤沥青供应增加有限。下游市场节后有补货需求，加上节后煤焦油市场供需紧张的局面仍在延续，高温煤焦油市场还有上涨空间。在成本压力下，深加工企业对煤沥青新单主要采取推涨策略。截至目前，山东市场改质沥青价格为 4050 元 / 吨，较 1 月初上涨 500 元 / 吨；山西市场改质沥青当前价格为 3950 元 / 吨，较 1 月初上涨 450 元 / 吨。

进入 2 月份，原料市场涨势不止，石油焦价格涨幅尤为显著。据相关数据测算，截至目前预焙阳极生产成本较 1 月增加 736.5 元 / 吨。本月仍有炼厂装置进行检修，石油焦产量预计会减少。当前市场交投活跃，炼厂及港口出货情况良好，整体处于去库状态。供应端产量预期减少，而需求端拉动强劲，这有望继续推动石油焦价格上涨。近期煤焦油供需依旧紧张，价格有望继续上升，煤沥青成本面支撑稳固。尽管深加工企业开工水平逐渐提升，但煤沥青现货供应仍然紧张，在诸多利好因素的支撑下，煤沥青市场后期仍有小幅上涨的预期。

石油焦作为阳极生产的重要原料，占比巨大。近期石油焦价格大幅上涨，使得阳极生产企业成本压力急剧增加。虽然近期阳极价格连续上涨，但由于预焙阳极采用月度定价模式，价格存在一定的滞后性，成本的增加难以及时有效地转移给下游。原料价格的持续上涨，对阳极企业的盈利能力和可持续发展构成了严峻挑战，未来的道路充满了不确定性和艰难险阻，阳极企业需要在这复杂的市场环境中寻找新的发展机遇和应对策略。

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[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 12 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001294s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 13 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001374s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 14 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001265s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 19 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001376s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 15 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001375s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001273s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001268s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001345s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 48 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000301s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 49 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000283s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 50 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000292s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000383s ]

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