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新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

锡市场供应困境持续与需求端新动能探析

2025-09-26 10:43:53 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：袁梦

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锡市场近况分析

根据最新海关总署数据，2025年8月中国锡矿砂及其精矿进口量为10267.27实物吨(折合4692.13金属吨)，同比虽增加12.79%，但环比下降4.68%。1-8月累计进口约8.27万实物吨，累计同比小幅增加1.10% 。这一数据表明，中国锡矿进口整体仍处于低位区间，国内原料端供应依然偏紧。

缅甸佤邦锡矿复产进程缓慢是制约全球锡供应链恢复的关键因素。尽管7月份缅甸佤邦召开复产会议推动采矿许可发放，部分运营商已获批复，但受制于人员、设备调配周期，实际产出和出口量短期难以大幅增加。

01 进口来源地多元化趋势明显

缅甸作为中国传统的锡矿进口主要来源地，其地位已大幅下滑。8月从缅甸的进口量为2091.78吨(折合593.44金属吨)，同比下降41.00%，虽然环比增加27.81%，但绝对量仍处低位，与2024年缅甸占中国锡矿进口总量48.21%的份额形成鲜明对比。

面对缅甸供应的不稳定，中国积极拓展多元化进口渠道。8月从其他国家合计进口量为8175.49吨(折合4098.69金属吨)，同比增加29.94%，环比下降8.07%。澳大利亚8月进口量为1307.85吨(折合655.31金属吨)，环比增加28.94%。非洲地区成为中国锡矿进口的重要补充，2025年上半年中国从刚果(金)和尼日利亚进口锡矿数量同比分别上涨27.49%、82.50%，但非洲供应链仍面临地缘政治和基础设施瓶颈，8月刚果(金)进口量环比下降15.56%。

02 缅甸复产困境叠加国内产业链承压

缅甸佤邦锡矿复产面临诸多挑战。尽管当地政府已在推动采矿许可发放，但受制于人员设备调配、矿场清理修复滞后、关键采矿物资成本激增等因素，实际产出和出口量短期难以大幅增加。

据相关数据统计，2025年7月，全球精炼锡产量为2.56万吨，消费量为2.74万吨，供应短缺0.18万吨。2025年1-7月，全球精炼锡产量为20.33万吨，消费量为21.42万吨，供应短缺1.09万吨。2025年8月我国精炼锡产量为17,152吨，环比7月调整后的17,968吨下降了4.5%，但相较于去年同期仍保持了3.0%的温和增长。

原料短缺与成本压力交织，冶炼厂加工费承压、冶炼企业开工率持续下滑。云南、江西地区锡精矿加工费持续处于三年来的最低水平，开工率低迷，加之云南等地多家企业8-9月停产检修，进一步制约冶炼产出，预计国内9月精炼锡产量将有所下降。

03 需求端半导体复苏与传统需求疲软并存

半导体行业复苏为锡需求带来曙光。截至2025年9月19日，费城半导体指数报6232.24，据今年年初上涨1210.74点。根据美国半导体行业协会SIA公布的统计结果，2025年7月全球半导体销售总额来到620.7亿美元，同比增长20.6%、环比增长3.6%。全球半导体销售总额单月首次突破600亿美元大关。AI算力基础设施的扩张持续拉动高纯锡需求，为高纯锡消费提供一定支撑。人工智能(AI)技术的发展，尤其是AI算力芯片封装精度的提升，仍在为锡焊料消费带来一定提振。

传统下游领域表现仍显疲软。进入传统消费旺季，终端需求的复苏力度仍显温和，尚未出现显著增长。传统电子消费领域作为锡需求的重要组成，实际出口订单环比仍走弱，下游焊料及家电企业订单未见明显增量，镀锡板、化工等传统领域复苏乏力，企业对高价原料接受度有限，仅以刚需采购为主，现货市场成交清淡。但市场仍对“金九银十”传统消费旺季需求回暖抱有一定期待，预计消费领域形成阶段性回升。

未来展望

长期看，缅甸供应虽有望修复，但仍受到当地政策与持续上升的开采成本制约，这推动了我国进口来源多元化的步伐。非洲等地虽展现出供应潜力，但受限于雨季因素及其现有的供应体量，短期内难以完全替代缅甸原有的市场地位。当前锡市供需双弱，国内冶炼企业则在成本线附近承压运行，市场正等待四季度缅甸供应能否如期放量，这将是决定锡市场走向的关键因素。全球半导体行业的复苏进度与强度，将直接影响锡焊料需求，从而重塑锡市场的供需平衡。

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