铜精矿加工费跌破成本线负TC或触发全球炼厂减产潮

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铜精矿加工费跌破成本线负TC或触发全球炼厂减产潮

2025-02-18 11:09:44 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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2025年2月铜精矿现货加工费（TC）已跌至负数，具体表现为：标准干净铜精矿TC指数为-8.58—0.08美元/干吨，月均值为-2.02美元/干吨，环比暴跌156.3%，同比降幅达108.1%。这是近年来首次出现TC负值，反映出铜精矿市场供需矛盾激化。

市场背景与趋势：

长期下跌趋势：2024年初铜精矿TC尚处于28.0-34.6美元/干吨（2024年1月），但随后因矿端干扰（如巴拿马Cobre铜矿停产、矿企减产）和冶炼产能扩张，TC持续下滑。至2024年2月，TC已跌至10美元低位，部分炼厂被迫提前检修。
极端供需失衡：2025年2月TC跌至负值，表明冶炼厂为获取原料需向矿山支付额外费用，凸显铜精矿供应极度紧张。同期铜精矿现货价涨至2408美元/干吨（均价），环比上涨3.7%，印证了矿端议价权增强。

原因分析：

矿端供应收缩：矿山事故、运营暂停及产量目标下调导致全球供应受限。
冶炼产能压力：中国冶炼厂扩张加剧原料竞争，而TC持续低于成本线迫使炼厂减产或提前检修。2024年二季度计划检修产能占比达37.3%，若TC低迷，减产规模可能扩大。
市场行为激进化：贸易商在招标中激进报价，秘鲁矿山招标曾以10美元中低位成交，甚至出现特殊条款下的负数TC。

行业影响：

炼厂运营承压：TC负值直接侵蚀冶炼利润，部分企业可能通过降低投料量、延长检修周期缓解压力。
未来供应预期：紫金矿业西藏巨龙铜矿二期扩建（2025年产能提升至35万吨/日）及东方紫金混矿项目（40万吨/年）或逐步缓解供应压力，但短期影响有限。

综上，铜精矿TC跌至负值是矿端短缺与冶炼需求刚性碰撞的结果，短期内市场或继续维持紧平衡状态，需关注炼厂减产及新矿投产进展。

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