美联储释放暂停缩表信号有色金属市场分化加剧

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

美联储释放暂停缩表信号有色金属市场分化加剧

2025-02-20 10:52:54 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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一、美联储会议纪要：降息路径谨慎，技术性调整或现

根据美联储11月会议纪要：

政策基调：若通胀持续回落且就业市场保持韧性，美联储将逐步降息至中性利率，但路径非预设（“not on a preset course”），需根据数据调整。
中性利率分歧：多数官员认为终端利率不确定性较高，降息节奏需谨慎。
技术性调整提议：部分官员建议将隔夜逆回购（ON RRP）利率下调5bp，使其与联邦基金利率下限一致，以优化资金流动。

市场影响：美元指数小幅下跌，CME数据显示12月降息25bp概率升至70%，缓解铜价上方压力。

二、有色金属市场：铜价震荡分化，其他品种涨跌互现

铜市场
- 铜精矿：现货市场冷清，长单谈判进展不顺，部分炼厂因长单到期面临原料压力，矿山暂停招标以避免市场混乱。
- 电解铜：上海市场升水企稳于平水附近，进口货源减少支撑挺价，下游接货情绪回升；1#电解铜11月末价73900元/吨，环比跌3.4%（10月末76515元/吨）。
- 废铜：精废价差缩窄压制利润，贸易商采购谨慎，部分终端因资金紧张减少订单。
- 铜杆/板带：广东精铜杆成交清淡，再生铜杆现货成交尚可；铜板带价格跟涨但成交减弱。
其他金属
- 铝：A00电解铝11月末价20360元/吨，环比持平。
- 铅/锌/锡：1#铅锭涨4.1%至17075元/吨，0#锌锭涨2.3%至25760元/吨，1#锡锭跌5.3%至240250元/吨。
- 镍：电解镍11月末价130380元/吨，环比涨4.1%。
企业动态：江西保太集团黄铜棒（HPb59-1国标）报价52400元/吨，环比涨100元，反映加工端需求韧性。

三、后市展望

铜价支撑逻辑：矿端紧张（厄瓜多尔铜矿出口降20% ）、国内消费韧性（11月需求超预期）及美联储降息预期下，铜价或震荡偏强
风险提示：美联储政策调整节奏、累库压力（LME铜库存增至27.09万吨）及宏观数据波动。

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美联储释放暂停缩表信号 有色金属市场分化加剧

一、美联储会议纪要：降息路径谨慎，技术性调整或现

二、有色金属市场：铜价震荡分化，其他品种涨跌互现

三、后市展望

有色金属报告推荐

美联储释放暂停缩表信号有色金属市场分化加剧