铜价冲破历史新高，全球市场将迎来供应危机？

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铜价冲破历史新高，全球市场将迎来供应危机？

2025-03-26 16:04:24 来源：大风号责任编辑：韩泽楷

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美股震荡

3月25日晚间，美股三大指数涨跌不一。

欧洲股市集体大涨，法国、德国股市涨近1%。

经济数据方面，3月美国消费者信心指数降至四年来最低水平，在关税不断升级的背景下，通胀和经济前景令人们感到担忧。

世界大型企业联合会周二公布的数据显示，消费者信心指数下降7.2点至92.9，彭博调查的经济学家预估中值为94。

展望未来6个月前景的预期指标下跌近10点至65.2，为12年来最低水平。

尽管美国消费者信心指数表现疲软，华尔街依然无视这一负面数据，推动标普500指数录得自1月以来的最佳三日涨幅。与此同时，随着交易员加大对美联储将在2025年降息的押注，债券收益率下滑，美元结束连续四日上涨走势。

派杰公司的克雷格·约翰逊表示：“我们认为，随着美股脱离调整区域、此前超卖的状况逐步修复，并接近季度末，股市仍有进一步上涨的空间。”

而在米勒塔巴克公司的马特·马利看来，虽然本轮反弹表现不错，但投资者尚未真正确信最坏的时期已经过去。他指出：“换句话说，这轮反弹更像是一次调整之后的常规回升。”

摩根大通的伊兰·本哈穆表示，随着关税政策逐步明朗，一些关键风险得到缓解，近期市场对美股反弹采取“逢高抛售”的策略是时候暂停了。

本哈穆在本周给客户的报告中写道：“我认为现在可能是时候转换思路，停止‘逢高卖出’策略了。市场最反感的并不是关税本身，而是不确定、无序的关税政策。”

瑞银投行的首席策略师表示，美国消费“明显疲软”，预计将进一步给股市带来压力。

美铜期货飙升至历史新高

3月25日晚间，纽约商品交易所（Comex）铜期货价格飙升至历史新高，交易员开始将美国总统特朗普可能对这一关键工业金属加征高额进口关税的预期计入价格中。

纽约商品交易所的铜价上涨至每磅5.2145美元，突破去年5月20日创下的5.199美元的前纪录。

今年以来，该月度主力合约已累计上涨约29%，导致美国铜价与伦敦金属交易所（LME）设定的全球基准价格之间出现前所未有的巨大价差。

今年1月起，美国铜期货价格开始高于伦敦金属交易所的价格，而在上月特朗普下令美国商务部以国家安全为由启动对铜进口关税的调查后，这一价差迅速扩大至历史高位。周一，美国铜价近月合约与LME铜价之间的价差创下新纪录，超过每吨1400美元。

这为贸易商提供了巨大的套利激励，他们正在利用这种价差将铜大量转运至美国，以抢在可能加征关税之前完成交付。高盛集团和花旗集团预计，美国将在年底前对铜进口征收25%的关税。市场普遍预计，大量铜将在此之前运抵美国。

Mercuria金属交易主管科斯塔斯·宾塔斯估计，约有50万吨铜正运往美国，这将导致全球其他市场面临严重的供应短缺。他预测，随着供应进一步紧张，LME铜价可能飙升至每吨12000美元以上。

外国铜大量涌入美国，对全球市场带来深远影响，美国铜价已远高于其他海外市场，这种价格倒挂让美国制造商提前感受到一场全面贸易战可能引发的成本通胀和供应链冲击。

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铜价冲破历史新高，全球市场将迎来供应危机？

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