铜基本面仍具有韧性

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铜基本面仍具有韧性

2025-04-02 10:07:31 来源：期货日报责任编辑：韩泽楷

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3月中旬，美铜价格强势攀升，一举创下历史新高，沪铜也稳健突破80000元/吨大关，强劲的市场表现极大地激发了投资者的热情。回溯本轮行情，驱动因素众多且复杂。今年年初以来，铜矿及原料供应持续紧张，这一状况逐步向下游传导，引发治炼厂初步减产。美国关税政策风险引发的”“国货”热潮，推动美铜价格持续剧新高位，进而带动伦铜和沪铜价格上扬，虽然海外宏观环境走弱限制了铜价上方想象空间，但短期基本面的韧性足以推动铜价继续上涨。不过若关税政策落地力度不及预期，则铜价可能回归基本面定价，价格或高位回调，投资者应关注风险。
在3月的美联储议息会议上，美联储宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%-4.50%之间，这一决策与市场预期高度契合。美联储放缓缩表节奏，不断改善了市场的流动性预期，使得美股、比特币等风险资产纷纷止跌企稳，美元指数也持续徘徊在低位，货币宽松趋势得以延续。与此同时，美国政府宣布拟对进口铜加征25%关税，这一消息引发市场对未来进口成本大幅攀升的强烈担忧。全球供应商为规避潜在风险，纷纷加速铜材运输入境，美国市场的需求预期也因此大幅上扬，美铜价格随之迅速上涨。

国内方面，前3个月需求端表现积极，铜市场呈现出需求端活跃、生产端韧性十足的良好态势，内需逐步“接力”外需的迹象已初见端倪。全国两会结束后，积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策定调明确，清晰地释放出宏观政策加码稳增长的强烈信号，极大地增强了市场信心。此外，DeepSeek引发的国内资产重估潮持续发酵，不断改善市场预期，有力地推动了经济进一步复苏。后续一系列提振消费的举措正加速落地，《提振消费专项行动方案》的出台与实施，有望为消费市场注入一剂强心针，形成更为强劲的支撑。

从供应端来看，冶炼端的扰动对铜价的短期影响愈发显著，因铜精矿现告加工费处于历史低位，国内某大型冶炼厂宣布旗下年产能约47万吨的冶炼厂减产。从长远视角分析，国内政府收紧新建铜冶炼厂规定，旨在有效遏制产能问题，未来，仅有少数大型企业有望满足严苛的进入门槛，这无疑意味着国内精炼铜供应将逐步收紧。中国铜治炼行业对进口精矿的依赖程度较高，相关数据显示，2024年国产铜精矿开采量仅为164万金属吨，而国产精炼铜产量高达1324万吨，铜矿自给率仅为12.4%，进入2025年，铜精矿受生产中断、品位下降及勘探成本上升等多重因素制约，供应紧张问题仍未得到实质性缓解，多家矿企相继减产或下调2025年生产指引。根据已更新年报的矿企数据，2025年产量指引增量仅为21万吨，相较2024年增量下降了47%。我们下调2025年矿端供应增速至1.5%，相较2024年1.8%的增速略有降低。
从需求端看，2025年铜消费将延续高韧性增长态势，长期绿色能源转型讲程的加速进一步加剧了铜市场的供需不平衡。每吉瓦的大阳能或风能装机容量需近5.5吨铜，这一用铜量是化石燃料基础设施的3倍。新能源汽车(单车用铜80kg)、AI算力中心(单台服务器1.36吨铜缆)及特高压电网建设等新兴领域需求强劲，预计2025年新能源用铜占比将超过20%，到2030年这一比例将超过30%，凸显出扩大铜生产规模的紧迫性。短期看，在“金三银四”传统需求旺季，下游拿货情绪环比明改善，市场现货供应偏紧。随着铜价连续上张，下游采购意愿逐渐减弱，畏高情绪浓厚，大多以刚需接货为主。但若铜价回落下游采购热情有望迅速回升。预计2025年全球消费增速可达3.4%，需求增速将高于供应增速，为铜价提供坚实有力的支撑。

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铜基本面仍具有韧性

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