2025年铅市场不会出现短缺市场供需或将趋于平衡

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年铅市场不会出现短缺市场供需或将趋于平衡

2025-01-14 09:40:32 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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回顾 2024 年，铅市宛如坐上了剧烈起伏的过山车，历经大幅波动，价格走势呈现出先升后降的鲜明态势。年初之际，铅价受产业内部矛盾激化等多重因素推动，一路高歌猛进，强势攀升至近六年以来的价格巅峰。然而，好景不长，随后铅价转头向下，开启回落之路，年内价格振幅颇为惊人，超过 20% 的波动幅度令市场参与者心弦紧绷。

从供需基本面来看，国内铅市场供应吃紧，这一紧张局势直接催生进口需求的显著增长，其中铅锭进口数量的上扬尤为突出。但遗憾的是，消费端增长乏力，犹如疲软的引擎，难以带动去库存进程加快脚步，使得进口窗口始终未能充分打开，难以形成大规模的顺畅进口局面。与此同时，铅精矿加工费持续下滑，宛如一个危险信号，清晰折射出冶炼厂利润空间遭到严重挤压，原料供应瓶颈犹如坚固枷锁，牢牢禁锢着行业发展。不仅如此，再生铅领域同样面临困境，因废电瓶这一关键原料供应紧缺，再生铅产量无奈下滑，进一步恶化了整体供应短缺的格局。

展望充满变数的 2025 年，铅市场有望迎来关键转折，逐步从供应紧张的泥沼迈向资源供需相对平衡的新局面。全球铅矿产量预计将迎来 1.8% 的温和增长，然而，在冶炼综合收益这一关键因素的驱动下，富含高银的铅矿资源仍将深陷供不应求的困境，矿端增产成果向冶炼端的传导效果不佳，这无疑会给冶炼环节的供应稳定性蒙上一层阴影，不确定性陡增。此外，得益于副产品收益提升，原生铅产量的恢复步伐将紧密依赖于冶炼厂自身的盈利状况，呈现出较强的关联性。预计国内原生铅供应有望增长 1%，而再生铅供应受废电瓶供应瓶颈的持续制约，增速几近停滞，预计仅为 0%，综合来看，全球精铅总供应将实现 0.8% 的增长。

需求端方面，2025 年经济复苏的暖流将为国内铅消费注入强劲动力，尤其是在以旧换新政策得以延续的利好加持下，消费潜能有望进一步释放。与此同时，东南亚市场蓬勃兴起，特别是两轮车消费领域展现出巨大的增长潜力，有望成为拉动全球铅消费增长的新生力量。据预测，全球铅消费增速将达到 0.8%。不过，需要注意的是，尽管整体供需趋于平衡，但国内市场仍潜藏着约 5 万吨的铅锭供需缺口，而海外市场则与之相反，或将出现 15 万吨的过剩产能。

聚焦价格走势，预计 2025 年铅市场总体供应相对充足，不会陷入短缺困境，供需将逐步趋于平衡稳态。全球铅库存预计将累积增加 10 万吨，这一库存增量犹如高悬头顶的 “达摩克利斯之剑”，将对铅价的上行形成强有力的压制，使得铅价整体呈现出宽幅波动的态势，不过相较于动荡的 2024 年，波动幅度有望小幅收窄。具体而言，预计沪铅价格将在 16000 - 18800 元 / 吨区间内震荡，伦铅价格则会在 1900 - 2300 美元 / 吨的区间徘徊。在比价维度，国内市场阶段性的相对紧缺局面可能促使中国进口窗口间歇性开启，敏锐捕捉这一契机，采取跨市反套策略或将挖掘出可观的交易机会。

综合研判，2025 年铅市场供需两端均将迎来边际改善的曙光，但鉴于矿端增产存在超预期风险，铅价仍将承压，面临一定的下行压力，市场参与者需密切关注各关键变量，审慎制定应对策略。

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