2025年预计：有色金属整体需求向好市场乐观

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年预计：有色金属整体需求向好市场乐观

2025-01-14 10:00:45 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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有色金属需求与国内宏观经济紧密相连。我国前三季度 GDP 同比增速 4.8%，经济呈稳定向好态势。

具体到品种，铜、锌、铝需求表现突出。电力是铜需求主导领域，占比 51%，截至 2024 年 11 月底，全国电网工程投资 5290 亿元，同比增 18.7%，有力支撑铜需求。基建投资影响锌需求，占比 31%，2024 年 1 - 11 月固定资产投资同比增长 9.39%，带动锌消费。房地产和交通是有色金属重要应用领域，房地产是铜、锌、电解铝重要消费板块，分别占比 9%、22%、33%，但当前房地产市场疲软，2024 年 1 - 11 月房屋竣工、新建商品房销售面积及销售额同比均下降，虽有利好政策，恢复尚需时日，还波及白色家电市场，冰箱、空调、洗衣机产量增速回落。

不过，新能源产业快速发展抵消房地产消极影响。新能源汽车用铜、铝量远超传统燃油车，每辆新能源汽车用铜约 91 公斤，是传统车 4 倍，耗铝 220 - 300 公斤，高于燃油车 130 - 150 公斤。2024 年 11 月新能源汽车产销创新高，1 - 11 月累计产销同比增长超 30%，但出口有挑战，11 月出口环比、同比双降，欧盟关税不利出口，未来增速或放缓。光伏、风力发电也积极影响有色金属需求，光伏每 1 吉瓦电站铝用量约 1.9 万吨，截至 2024 年 10 月底太阳能发电装机容量同比增 47%；风电 1 - 11 月累计装机容量同比增 19.2%，风车制造大量用锌。此外，人工智能、低空经济等新兴领域将推动有色金属长期消费增长。

整体看，虽 2024 年房地产低迷拖累，但新能源产业对冲，有色金属消费不差，前景广阔。库存方面，截至 2024 年 12 月 23 日，上海期货交易所铜、锌、铝库存低，分别为 16415 吨、10767 吨、75827 吨，与矿石供应紧张有关，全球资源减少致产成品少、库存低，这将支撑价格。

展望 2025 年，虽有色金属价格高位，采矿商盈利难，矿石加工费预计偏低，产量受原材料制约，同比增长率低，库存维持低位。需求端，我国推动房地产 “止跌回稳”，预计 2025 年政策利好更多，房地产有望边际好转，带动白色家电，推动传统下游需求回暖；新能源领域持续拉动需求，国产新能源汽车竞争力强、新车型将上市，光伏、风电竞争虽激烈仍有需求，低空经济成新消费点，有色金属需求向好。但宏观有不确定性，特朗普再任总统，关税政策或冲击我国出口，若提至 60% 影响更大；美联储降息次数或减，市场乐观预期减弱，利空有色金属市场。

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