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风险偏好提高短期铜价或维持偏强走势

2025-04-25 09:11:44 来源：光大期货责任编辑：韩泽楷

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宏观方面，美国3月耐用品订单环比初值9.2%，为2024年7月以来最大增幅，大幅超过预期值2%和前值0.9%，但扣除运输类耐用品订单环比初值为0%，不及预期的0.3%，大幅低于前月的0.7%，总体来看飞机制造订单掩盖了其他制造业的不足，企业投资更加谨慎。美国3月成屋销售总数环比跌5.9%大幅预期为下跌2.6%和前值上涨4.2%，3月成屋销售同比下降3.1%，不过美联储多位官员发声偏鸽派，经济和就业市场快速下滑下，美联储会考虑降息市场对6月降息的预期开始升温，库存方面，LME铜库存下降1825吨至203425吨:Comex铜库存增加1544.95吨至19313.25吨:SHFE铜仓单下降2001吨至42964吨:BC铜仓单维持9963吨。需求方面，下游开工和江单保持平稳，节前备货或进一步加快库存去化。3月国内精炼铜、废铜和阳极铜均出现较大幅度下降，无疑会加大国内现货紧张态势，现货或维系升水。
绝对价格方面，虽然美政府态度摇摆，但在经济和债务压力下货仍倾向于缓和，提高风险偏好，预计短期铜价或维系偏强走势，关注78000-80000元)吨阻力区间，情绪上关注美股及LME铜非亚洲盘走势。

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风险偏好提高 短期铜价或维持偏强走势

风险偏好提高短期铜价或维持偏强走势