基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

中美关税互降115%：日内瓦会谈成果与未来走向解析

2025-05-13 17:25:19 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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日内瓦会谈标志着中美从“对抗性关税战”转向“管控竞争+有限合作”的新阶段。尽管短期成果显著，但双方在技术主权、全球规则主导权等深层次矛盾仍未解决。

未来需关注：

商机制实效性：能否转化为具体行业协议（如数字贸易规则、气候技术合作）；

第三方因素干扰：美国大选周期、欧盟对华政策调整可能影响谈判进程。

01关税削减协议的核心内容

美方举措

取消91%加征关税：撤销依据2025年4月8日第14259号、4月9日第14266号行政令对中国商品加征的91%关税；

暂停24%“对等关税”：修改4月2日第14257号行政令，暂停其中24%的关税90天，保留10%的关税作为后续谈判筹码。

中方对等措施

取消91%反制关税：对应美方行动，取消税委会公告2025年第5号、第6号规定的加征关税；

同步暂停24%关税：针对美方“对等关税”，暂停24%的反制措施90天，保留10%作为保留空间。

非关税措施调整：

中方同步暂停或取消自2025年4月2日起针对美国的稀土出口限制、技术审查等非关税反制措施。

实质效果：双方合计取消和暂停了115%的关税（美方91%+24%、中方91%+24%），这一安排被国际媒体称为“超出预期的突破”。

日内瓦会谈的短期意义

1.市场信心提振协议公布后，港股恒生科技指数上涨超4%，腾讯、阿里等中概股涨幅超4%，美元指数同步走强，反映市场对全球供应链恢复的乐观预期。黄金价格因避险情绪消退而下跌，外贸企业短期压力缓解。

2.经济脱钩风险缓和双方明确“不寻求经济脱钩”，暂停关税措施有助于减少约6000亿美元贸易额的损失，缓解滞胀担忧。

3.芬太尼问题关联美方将打击芬太尼原料非法贸易纳入谈判成果，作为暂停关税的前提之一，这一议题此前是美方加征关税的借口。

长期博弈与后续机制

1.常态化磋商机制建立双方同意设立“中美经贸磋商机制”，由中国副总理何立峰与美财长贝森特、贸易代表格里尔牵头，定期或不定期在两国或第三国举行会议。议题扩展：未来谈判将聚焦贸易失衡、产业补贴、技术壁垒、半导体出口管制等结构性矛盾。

2.保留关税的潜在博弈双方保留的10%关税可能作为谈判筹码，例如美方要求中方扩大农产品进口，中方则要求美方放宽高科技出口限制。

3.国产化与供应链安全的矛盾尽管关税降低，但美国对华技术封锁（如芯片、AI领域）仍未松动，中国需加速核心产业自主化。专家指出，中美在稀土、新能源等领域的竞争可能成为下一阶段摩擦点。

国际评价与挑战

1.国际社会反应：正面评价：法新社称中国“成功迫使美方让步”，新加坡《联合早报》认为协议为全球经济注入确定性。质疑声音：部分美媒认为协议是“战术性妥协”，特朗普政府可能因国内政治压力再次调整政策。

2.执行风险：90天暂停期后，若谈判未取得进展，保留关税可能重新生效；美国两党对华政策分歧可能影响协议落实，例如共和党强硬派或批评“对华软弱”。

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中美关税互降115%：日内瓦会谈成果与未来走向解析

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