铅市展望：春节前后供应、消费与价格趋势

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铅市展望：春节前后供应、消费与价格趋势

2025-01-16 11:43:21 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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供应与现货市场动态

（一）现货与库存情况

随着环保限产影响的消除，原生铅冶炼厂出货回款的积极性显著提高。原生铅散单对 SMM1# 铅的升水幅度为 0 - 50 元 / 吨出厂，原生铅厂库的货物开始向社会库存转移。而再生精铅的持货商则表现出惜售情绪，其对 SMM1# 铅的升水幅度达到 50 - 100 元 / 吨出厂。在下游采购方面，由于更倾向于采购价格较低的电解铅，加之节前备库需求的影响，SMM 铅社会库存回落至 4.6 万吨。国际市场上，LME 铅库存也回落至 22.57 万吨，0 - 3 月呈现贴水 18.48 美元的状态。当前，内外盘均呈现去库存态势，沪铅价格在低位获得了来自成本端的有力支撑。

（二）供应状况

炼厂冬储已接近尾声，铅精矿市场目前处于供需双弱的局面，加工费（TC）暂时保持稳定。受铅价处于低位的影响，再生铅的利润空间受到挤压，部分再生炼厂采取压价采购或者推迟采购废电瓶的策略。尽管废电瓶价格下跌幅度有限，但也缺乏明显的反弹动力。上周，原生铅炼厂既有检修情况，也有复产现象。湖南地区复产的电解铅厂产量略有增加，SMM 原生铅周度开工率环比提升 0.53 个百分点，达到 58.72%，中金岭南预计在本周复产。随着环保限产影响的减弱，安徽地区的大型炼厂复产或提高产量，这在一定程度上对冲了内蒙古一大型炼厂停产带来的影响，SMM 再生铅周度开工率环比增长 3.77 个百分点，达到 42.44%。不过，部分炼厂在春节前后仍有检修计划，预计 1 月铅锭供应量将环比小幅下降。

消费市场表现

下游企业为春节进行备货，这一行为带动 SMM 铅酸蓄电池企业综合开工率环比增长 1.42 个百分点，达到 74.55%。然而，从本周开始，下游电池企业将陆续进入假期停工阶段，消费市场逐渐转弱。

价格走势预测

春节期间，铅市场可能会出现阶段性供大于求的情况。但在交割去库存的预期下，预计铅的累库幅度不会太大。在成本支撑和需求制约的双重作用下，沪铅价格预计将在 1.65 - 1.69 万元 / 吨的区间内震荡运行。

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铅市展望：春节前后供应、消费与价格趋势

供应与现货市场动态

（一）现货与库存情况

（二）供应状况

消费市场表现

价格走势预测

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