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美联储沃勒力推 7 月降息：别等就业市场恶化再行动，内部分歧引关注

2025-07-18 09:44:52 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：石林

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当地时间周四，美联储理事沃勒在纽约的演讲中释放出迄今为止最强烈的 7 月降息信号，直言 “应该在两周后的会议上削减政策利率”。作为市场眼中可能接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席的热门人选之一，他的表态不仅挑战了市场此前对 7 月维持利率不变的普遍预期，更凸显出美联储内部围绕政策走向的显著分歧。

沃勒明确提出，当前 4.25%-4.5% 的政策利率应下调至 3%，幅度达 125-150 个基点。他的核心论据在于：通胀已接近目标，且关税对物价的影响仅是 “一次性上涨”，属于暂时现象，美联储应 “忽略” 这类短期因素，转而聚焦就业这一核心使命。

尽管美国就业市场表面数据尚可，但沃勒警告其潜藏风险：私营部门就业增长已接近 “失速”。6 月新增就业中，半数来自州和地方政府，私营部门新增人数较前两月下滑，多项指标均显示就业市场下行压力正在累积。他强调，“不应等到就业市场恶化才降息”，提前行动才能更好应对潜在风险。

这一表态进一步撕裂了美联储的内部共识。目前，包括纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在内的多位决策者更担忧关税对通胀的持续性影响，倾向于维持利率观望；而沃勒与负责监管事务的副主席鲍曼则构成 “降息派”，主张尽早行动。此前市场几乎 100% 预期 7 月会议维持利率不变，如今随着分歧公开化，美联储政策走向的不确定性显著上升。

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