特朗普上任对有色金属行业的深度影响剖析

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

特朗普上任对有色金属行业的深度影响剖析

2025-01-21 09:10:09 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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价格方面

部分金属价格上涨：特朗普曾表示要对墨西哥和加拿大的所有产品征收 25% 的关税，而加拿大和墨西哥是美国最大的铝和钢供应商，所以铝和钢价有上涨压力。从历史情况来看，特朗普上台后黄金价格一度上涨。这是因为投资者将黄金作为保值手段，以对冲特朗普政策的不确定性以及可能引发的通胀风险。
金属价差波动：在特朗普于 2025 年 1 月 20 日就职前，交易员加大对特朗普将对金属征收高额进口关税的押注，纽约市场上铜和白银期货价格与伦敦市场间的价差拉大。

供需方面

需求端波动：特朗普上台后推行的政策偏重于传统工业、固定资产投资，如推出 5000 亿美元金属投资计划，这在一定程度上会增加对有色金属的需求，拉动有色金属产业。但如果特朗普推行贸易保护主义政策，引发贸易摩擦，可能会影响全球经济增长，从而使有色金属的需求受到抑制。
供应端受限：特朗普政府时期对进口铝征收 10% 的关税，这在一定程度上保护了美国国内铝业企业，促使美国国内铝制造商产出、就业和资本投资出现复苏迹象，但从全球范围来看，可能会导致部分有色金属的供应受限，影响全球供应格局。如果特朗普上台后加大力度确保国内外关键矿产的稳定供应，推动 “重建必需品供应生产链”，可能会改变美国对部分稀有金属的进口依赖现状，对全球稀有金属的供应格局产生影响。

行业发展方面

产业结构调整：为了满足特朗普政策下对国内有色金属产业的支持，美国国内的有色金属行业可能会进行产业结构调整，一些企业可能会加大投资，扩大生产规模，而一些竞争力不足的企业可能会被淘汰。
贸易格局变化：特朗普的贸易保护主义政策可能会导致全球有色金属贸易格局发生变化。各国可能会采取相应的反制措施，引发贸易摩擦，影响有色金属的进出口贸易。比如美国对铝和钢铁等金属征收关税，欧盟等经济体实施了反制措施。

市场预期和投资方面

市场不确定性增加：特朗普政策的不确定性使得投资者对有色金属市场的预期也变得不确定。投资者可能会更加谨慎，资金的流向也会受到影响，从而导致有色金属市场的波动性增加。
相关企业股价波动：特朗普的政策预期会影响有色金属相关企业的股价。例如在特朗普首次上台前后，美铝公司的股价上涨。市场预期美国国内的铝生产企业将会从特朗普的政策中获益，从而推动了相关企业股价的上升。

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特朗普上任对有色金属行业的深度影响剖析

价格方面

供需方面

行业发展方面

市场预期和投资方面

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