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兴业银锡业绩剖析与行业洞察

2025-01-21 09:23:17 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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一、兴业银锡 2024 年业绩亮点

年度净利大幅预增：兴业银锡（000426.SZ）在 2024 年展现出强劲的盈利能力，预计实现归属于母公司所有者净利润 13.5 亿 - 16.5 亿元，相较于上年同期，增幅高达 39.27% - 70.22%；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润同样表现亮眼，为 13.6 亿 - 16.6 亿元，同比增长 32.77% - 62.06%。此业绩若达成，将创下公司上市以来的最佳年度表现，标志着公司发展迈上新台阶。
银漫矿业关键贡献：子公司银漫矿业无疑是这份亮眼业绩背后的中流砥柱。自 2023 年 6 月 9 日选矿厂开启停产技改，引入锡石浮选工艺，并于 7 月 10 日完成技改投入使用后，主营矿产品产销量同比显著增加。2024 年上半年，银漫矿业营收 13.94 亿元，净利润 7.09 亿元，同比增速高达 410.64%，分别占据公司同期总营收、净利润的 63.42%、80.29%，成为公司盈利增长的核心驱动力。

二、潜在隐忧：季度业绩波动

尽管年度业绩斐然，但分季度审视，兴业银锡 2024 年单季度业绩同比增速呈现下滑态势，尤其是第四季度，业绩同比已现下滑。公司前三个季度归母净利润分别为 2.29 亿元、6.54 亿元、4.16 亿元，同比增速依次为 1539.37%、451.63%、1.47%，而据此推算，Q4 归母净利润仅为 0.5 亿 - 3.5 亿元，增速区间为 - 88.26% 至 - 17.84%。这一波动暗示公司在运营过程中，或许受季节性因素、市场供需节奏变化或产品价格短期波动等多重因素影响，业绩稳定性面临挑战，需后续持续关注并优化经营策略以应对。

三、业绩驱动双引擎

产能扩张升级：银漫矿业的产能释放是兴业银锡业绩腾飞的关键因素之一。2024 年自选矿厂技改完成后，主营矿产品产量的增加直接推动了营收增长。不仅如此，公司乘胜追击，于 2025 年 1 月 10 日公布产能 “倍增” 计划，其在矿区的锌、铅、银、铜、锡矿扩建工程项目已获内蒙古自治区发改委核准批复，项目建设规模将由 165 万吨 / 年跃升至 297 万吨 / 年，开采方式为地下开采，改扩建项目稳步推进，为未来持续的产能提升筑牢根基，有望续写业绩增长传奇。
有色金属价格上扬：2024 年有色金属市场整体偏强运行，为兴业银锡的业绩增色不少。据 Choice 数据，沪锡、沪银、沪铅主力 2024 年均价同比增幅分别约为 17%、30%、10%。在此大环境下，公司主营的锡精粉、银精粉、铅精粉、锌精粉等矿产品销售价格水涨船高，较上年同期大幅上涨，借助市场东风，公司盈利得以显著提升。

四、银漫矿业深度剖析

资源禀赋卓越：银漫矿业自 2016 年被兴业银锡以 24.13 亿元全资收购后，便成为公司的核心资产。该矿蕴含丰富的铅锌银矿和铜锡银锌矿，含银量、矿产品位双高，且剩余服务年限长久，在国内白银生产领域独占鳌头，亦是重要的锡精矿生产企业，为兴业银锡的长期发展提供了坚实的资源保障。
探矿增储布局：兴业银锡深知资源储备的战略意义，持续在银漫矿业投入重兵进行探矿增储。2023 年，公司在该矿实施勘探地表钻 51076.25 米，坑内钻 19516.76 米，坑道 6820.9 米，累计投入高达 10.27 亿元。这一前瞻性布局旨在挖掘更多潜在资源，延长矿山服务年限，确保未来产能的可持续增长，进一步巩固公司在有色金属行业的竞争优势。

五、行业关联与启示

将兴业银锡的发展置于宏观经济与行业背景下考量，有色金属价格走势与矿山产能释放节奏紧密关联着企业命运。一方面，全球经济复苏进程、宏观政策调控对有色金属需求产生直接影响，进而左右价格波动，如 2024 年宏观经济环境推动有色金属价格走强，成就了兴业银锡的业绩增长。另一方面，矿山企业自身的技改升级、产能扩张决策又能反作用于市场供需，影响价格均衡。此外，汇率波动也会对有色金属进出口及国际定价产生间接影响，就如同近期人民币汇率市场动态，若人民币汇率持续稳定或升值，对于依赖进口原材料的有色金属加工企业成本控制有利，反之则可能影响兴业银锡等矿山企业的出口竞争力及海外市场拓展。企业需敏锐捕捉这些关联因素，灵活调整战略，方能在波谲云诡的市场中稳健前行。

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[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 15 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001706s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001409s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002333s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.002326s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 48 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000451s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 49 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000350s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 50 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000370s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000438s ]