2025年全年销量预测:乘用车零售增长6%、出口增长14%、新能源批发增长27%

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025年全年销量预测:乘用车零售增长6%、出口增长14%、新能源批发增长27%

2025-08-06 11:18:53 来源：乘联分会责任编辑：袁梦

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根据国家统计局发布的数据，2025年上半年我国GDP增长达5.3%，上半年我们的经济增长实现了良好开局，经济保持了稳健的发展态势，为车市注入了稳定预期。

今年上半年在国家和地方政府鼓励汽车消费、提振经济的多重利好政策加持下，车市走出了一条“复苏增长、结构调整、利润承压”的鲜明轨迹。乘用车1-6月累计零售总量及新能源乘用车累计零售分别取得了10.8%和33.3%的增长。据此乘联分会预测团队在7月中旬时根据国内与出口市场超预期的表现和未来4个月的滚动预测，乘联分会稍微上调了2025年的行业年度预测。总体各项预测如下：

2025年乘用车零售：2025年乘用车零售2,435万辆，增长6%，预测总量较6月的预测值增加30万辆。

2025年乘用车出口：2025年乘用车出口546万辆，增长14%，预测总量较年初的预测值提升16万辆。

2025年新能源乘用车批发：2025年新能源乘用车批发1,548万辆，增长27%，预测总量较6月的预测值微降，新能源批发渗透率达56%。

2025年全国汽车批发：2025年汽车批发3,404万辆，增长8%，预测总量较年初的预测值提高5个百分点。

2024年中国汽车产业的产值规模已经超越国内其他行业，成为国民经济的第一支柱产业，所以稳定发展汽车产业是经济增长的第一稳定器。

展望下半年，挑战与机遇并存。2025年的国际环境依然呈现出复杂多变的态势，汽车市场面临来自国内内卷式竞争和国外关税的不确定性等多重压力。按照中央会议精神，今年要整治内卷，强化质量标准的引领作用，持续优化市场竞争秩序。考虑到去年销量的高基数，下半年我们将继续对车市作滚动预测。

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2025年全年销量预测:乘用车零售增长6%、出口增长14%、新能源批发增长27%

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