高盛领衔看涨降息：美联储 9 月降息 25 基点概率飙至 93%，全年或降 65 基点

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

高盛领衔看涨降息：美联储 9 月降息 25 基点概率飙至 93%，全年或降 65 基点

2025-08-14 10:39:39 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：石林

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美东时间周三，高盛在最新研究报告中明确表态，预计美联储今年将开启三轮降息，每次下调 25 个基点，2026 年还将再降两次。若该预测落地，美联储终端利率将从当前的 4.25%-4.50% 区间降至 3%-3.25%。

通胀数据 “添柴”：降息逻辑持续强化

周二公布的美国 7 月 CPI 数据成为市场焦点。数据显示，7 月 CPI 环比上涨 0.2%，低于 6 月的 0.3%，完全符合经济学家预期。细分来看，关键商品价格呈现降温态势：7 月汽油价格环比下跌 2.2%，连续两个月环比上涨 0.3% 的食品价格涨势停歇，7 月环比持平。

高盛分析指出，这份 CPI 报告释放重要信号：近期与关税相关的价格压力大概率是暂时的，相关措施尚未引发消费者价格大幅上涨。这一结论直接强化了 9 月份 “保险性” 降息的合理性 —— 即更倾向于通过 25 个基点的降息，为经济抵御下行风险 “上保险”。

就业数据成关键：疲软态势支撑宽松预期

事实上，一周前美国非农数据的疲弱表现已为降息埋下伏笔。高盛强调，上月公布的就业报告修正幅度创下过去 57 年非衰退期之最，这意味着过去一年每月就业增长预期可能被下修 4.5 万至 8 万个。当时高盛就判断，9 月降息已是极大概率事件，分歧仅在于降息 25 基点还是 50 基点。

高盛预计，未来数月市场焦点将集中于美国就业市场，疲软的劳动力数据可能进一步为美联储放松政策提供支撑。美国劳工统计局数据显示，5 月、6 月和 7 月就业增长均显乏力，这也成为政策转向的重要依据。

市场与官方共振：9 月降息几成定局

市场对降息的预期已进入 “白热化” 阶段。据 LSEG 计算，美国利率期货周三尾盘数据显示，美联储 9 月降息 25 个基点的概率已飙升至 93%，降息 50 个基点的可能性仅为 7%。交易商预测进一步升温，认为今年美联储总计降息幅度约为 65 个基点，高于上周预测的 60 个基点。

官方层面也释放积极信号。美国财长贝森特周二、周三连续发声力挺降息，尤其力促 50 个基点大幅降息。他直言：“利率太过紧缩…… 我们可能应该把利率下调 150 到 175 个基点。” 贝森特强调，结合近期疲弱的就业数据，美联储完全有可能一次降息 50 个基点。受其表态影响，周三市场降息几率小幅上升。

从当前多方信号来看，美联储 9 月降息几乎 “板上钉钉”，25 基点的 “保险性降息” 成为市场主流预期。未来随着就业数据的持续跟踪，美联储宽松周期的节奏或将进一步明晰。

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高盛领衔看涨降息：美联储 9 月降息 25 基点概率飙至 93%，全年或降 65 基点

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