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高盛领衔看涨降息：美联储 9 月降息 25 基点概率飙至 93%，全年或降 65 基点

2025-08-14 10:39:39 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：石林

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美东时间周三，高盛在最新研究报告中明确表态，预计美联储今年将开启三轮降息，每次下调 25 个基点，2026 年还将再降两次。若该预测落地，美联储终端利率将从当前的 4.25%-4.50% 区间降至 3%-3.25%。

通胀数据 “添柴”：降息逻辑持续强化

周二公布的美国 7 月 CPI 数据成为市场焦点。数据显示，7 月 CPI 环比上涨 0.2%，低于 6 月的 0.3%，完全符合经济学家预期。细分来看，关键商品价格呈现降温态势：7 月汽油价格环比下跌 2.2%，连续两个月环比上涨 0.3% 的食品价格涨势停歇，7 月环比持平。

高盛分析指出，这份 CPI 报告释放重要信号：近期与关税相关的价格压力大概率是暂时的，相关措施尚未引发消费者价格大幅上涨。这一结论直接强化了 9 月份 “保险性” 降息的合理性 —— 即更倾向于通过 25 个基点的降息，为经济抵御下行风险 “上保险”。

就业数据成关键：疲软态势支撑宽松预期

事实上，一周前美国非农数据的疲弱表现已为降息埋下伏笔。高盛强调，上月公布的就业报告修正幅度创下过去 57 年非衰退期之最，这意味着过去一年每月就业增长预期可能被下修 4.5 万至 8 万个。当时高盛就判断，9 月降息已是极大概率事件，分歧仅在于降息 25 基点还是 50 基点。

高盛预计，未来数月市场焦点将集中于美国就业市场，疲软的劳动力数据可能进一步为美联储放松政策提供支撑。美国劳工统计局数据显示，5 月、6 月和 7 月就业增长均显乏力，这也成为政策转向的重要依据。

市场与官方共振：9 月降息几成定局

市场对降息的预期已进入 “白热化” 阶段。据 LSEG 计算，美国利率期货周三尾盘数据显示，美联储 9 月降息 25 个基点的概率已飙升至 93%，降息 50 个基点的可能性仅为 7%。交易商预测进一步升温，认为今年美联储总计降息幅度约为 65 个基点，高于上周预测的 60 个基点。

官方层面也释放积极信号。美国财长贝森特周二、周三连续发声力挺降息，尤其力促 50 个基点大幅降息。他直言：“利率太过紧缩…… 我们可能应该把利率下调 150 到 175 个基点。” 贝森特强调，结合近期疲弱的就业数据，美联储完全有可能一次降息 50 个基点。受其表态影响，周三市场降息几率小幅上升。

从当前多方信号来看，美联储 9 月降息几乎 “板上钉钉”，25 基点的 “保险性降息” 成为市场主流预期。未来随着就业数据的持续跟踪，美联储宽松周期的节奏或将进一步明晰。

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