2025 铝产业上下游市场全景洞察：机遇与挑战并存

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

2025 铝产业上下游市场全景洞察：机遇与挑战并存

2025-02-13 16:17:22 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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龙年离去，蛇年开启，铝产业上下游市场步入新阶段，态势复杂。

一、预焙阳极市场：涨困交织

2025 年初，预焙阳极市场火热。山东大型电解铝企业 2 月采购基准价 4110 元 / 吨，环比上月涨 85 元 / 吨，近三月累计涨幅 440 元 / 吨，源于成本支撑。

当前，预焙阳极企业多平稳，北方部分受环保限产影响，产量释放短期受阻。下游铝厂开工负荷稳，多家复产检修产能，供需面波动不大。

但阳极企业利润堪忧。以山东市场测成本，本轮结算期生产成本约 4430.5 元 / 吨，对比采购基准价，企业平均亏 320.5 元 / 吨，成本涨幅超价格，亏损扩大。成本结构里，石油焦占比 77.0%，煤沥青 16.9%，石油焦价格持续涨，占比上月还扩大。

二、石油焦市场：供需失衡价飙

近期石油焦市场成焦点，交投火热，价格大涨。

供应端，国内石油焦市场涨势延续，低硫焦突出。1 月个别炼厂调产量，整体产量微升但结构失衡，高硫普货多，低硫焦产量自去年底下滑，指标货稀缺。

春节前后，下游备货补库需求强，炼厂出货顺、无库存压力，港口现货库存下行。低硫及指标货石油焦价格猛涨，带动中高硫普货跟涨。截至当前，山东 3B 石油焦价 4527 元 / 吨，较 1 月初涨 2224 元 / 吨，3C 石油焦 3553 元 / 吨，较 1 月初涨 1496 元 / 吨，华东 3B 石油焦 3810 元 / 吨，较 1 月初涨 1690 元 / 吨。

展望本月，有炼厂装置检修，产量预期减，当前交投、出货、去库态势好，价格有望续涨，供需失衡难改。

三、煤沥青市场：成本驱稳

煤沥青市场受成本利好稳步发展。1 月起，国内高温煤焦油行业开工率降，供应量减，供需紧张，煤焦油价格攀升。

深加工企业开工负荷下滑，煤沥青现货供应紧。春节后虽复产，但短期增量有限，下游有补货需求，煤焦油紧张格局延续，企业成本压力下推涨煤沥青新单。

当前，山东改质沥青价 4050 元 / 吨，较 1 月初涨 500 元 / 吨，山西改质沥青 3950 元 / 吨，较 1 月初涨 450 元 / 吨。未来，煤焦油价有望续涨，煤沥青存小幅上涨预期。

总体而言，2025 年铝产业上下游市场在原料价涨、供需调整下机遇挑战并存。预焙阳极企业难转嫁成本，石油焦市场供需矛盾突出，煤沥青市场稳中有进。各环节企业需盯紧市场动态、优化成本、调整策略求发展。

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2025 铝产业上下游市场全景洞察：机遇与挑战并存

一、预焙阳极市场：涨困交织

二、石油焦市场：供需失衡价飙

三、煤沥青市场：成本驱稳

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