美银观点：AI 行情仍具韧性，美元无序反弹需警惕

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

美银观点：AI 行情仍具韧性，美元无序反弹需警惕

2025-09-29 16:44:40 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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美银策略师Hartnett认为，AI泡沫行情尚未到头，核心依据是当前科技股信贷息差处于18年来低点，反映市场对科技企业违约风险定价极低，与典型泡沫后期信贷风险上升的特征不符，且EPFR资金流向显示全球资金仍在涌入股票、黄金等资产，投资者未因崩盘担忧退缩。不过需注意，标普500市净率等估值指标已超2000年互联网泡沫峰值，中小AI企业或存局部风险，估值与信贷的背离暗示对AI盈利预期可能过度乐观。

当前市场最大风险并非AI泡沫破裂，而是“做空美元”的共识交易被打破。今年美元指数下跌9.2%，是黄金(涨41.3%)、科技股等资产上涨的核心驱动力，但若美元指数无序反弹突破102关键位，可能触发做多纳斯达克、全球银行股等共识交易的集体平仓。不过长期来看，美国政府高债务、全球去美元化等因素未变，美元长期贬值趋势不改，这也为黄金提供了结构性支撑——尽管黄金短期超买，但在私人和机构客户资产管理规模中占比仅0.4%和2.4%，仍属低配资产。

对比AI热潮与互联网泡沫，二者虽均因技术颠覆性引发估值过热，但差异显著：当前AI头部企业(如英伟达、微软)已实现规模化盈利，融资多依赖低息债务和自有资金，而2000年互联网企业多亏损且依赖高杠杆股权融资;同时全球对AI的政策支持更明确，竞争格局更多元，这让AI行情更具韧性。

综上，短期需重点警惕美元反弹引发的资产波动，长期来看AI行情尚未终结，投资者可优选现金流稳定的科技头部企业，同时减持美元短期资产，增配黄金及非美货币，对冲潜在风险。

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美银观点：AI 行情仍具韧性，美元无序反弹需警惕

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