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美银观点：AI 行情仍具韧性，美元无序反弹需警惕

2025-09-29 16:44:40 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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美银策略师Hartnett认为，AI泡沫行情尚未到头，核心依据是当前科技股信贷息差处于18年来低点，反映市场对科技企业违约风险定价极低，与典型泡沫后期信贷风险上升的特征不符，且EPFR资金流向显示全球资金仍在涌入股票、黄金等资产，投资者未因崩盘担忧退缩。不过需注意，标普500市净率等估值指标已超2000年互联网泡沫峰值，中小AI企业或存局部风险，估值与信贷的背离暗示对AI盈利预期可能过度乐观。

当前市场最大风险并非AI泡沫破裂，而是“做空美元”的共识交易被打破。今年美元指数下跌9.2%，是黄金(涨41.3%)、科技股等资产上涨的核心驱动力，但若美元指数无序反弹突破102关键位，可能触发做多纳斯达克、全球银行股等共识交易的集体平仓。不过长期来看，美国政府高债务、全球去美元化等因素未变，美元长期贬值趋势不改，这也为黄金提供了结构性支撑——尽管黄金短期超买，但在私人和机构客户资产管理规模中占比仅0.4%和2.4%，仍属低配资产。

对比AI热潮与互联网泡沫，二者虽均因技术颠覆性引发估值过热，但差异显著：当前AI头部企业(如英伟达、微软)已实现规模化盈利，融资多依赖低息债务和自有资金，而2000年互联网企业多亏损且依赖高杠杆股权融资;同时全球对AI的政策支持更明确，竞争格局更多元，这让AI行情更具韧性。

综上，短期需重点警惕美元反弹引发的资产波动，长期来看AI行情尚未终结，投资者可优选现金流稳定的科技头部企业，同时减持美元短期资产，增配黄金及非美货币，对冲潜在风险。

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