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新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

BMI上调2025年铜价预估，受助于工业需求和供应中断

2025-10-15 16:50:43 来源：文华财经责任编辑：韩泽楷

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惠誉解决方案旗下BMI机构将2025年铜均价预测上调至每吨9,650美元，此前预期为9,500美元。持续的供应中断与强劲的工业需求支撑市场。目前铜价均值为每吨9,609美元，但受多重宏观因素影响，当前交易价格已突破每吨10,000美元。其中最关键的是美国降息举措，BM!预测这将刺激制造业和投资活动持续至2026年，为工业金属创造利好。但该机构同时警示，地缘紧张局势--尤其是贸易摩擦升级-可能限制2026年前铜价的进一步上涨空间。

*清洁能源驱动需求*

BMI指出，中国仍是全球铜消费的主导力量。中国绿色能源扩张显著提振铜的现货需求。2025年上半年太阳能装机容量激增212吉瓦，同比近翻番；同期电动汽车销量大幅增长。

BMI指出，可再生能源与电动汽车的双重热潮已将上海期货交易所铜库存推至多年低点。全球范围内，伦敦金属交易所库存2025年间减半至近14万吨因预期行业关税政策，大量库存已提前出口至美国。

*矿山中断影响*

在供应端，BMI认为铜价将持续受到主要生产商供应中断浪潮的支撑。全球第二大铜矿自由港麦克莫兰公司Grasberg铜矿9月发生泥石流灾害，导致该矿援引不可抗力条款，2026年产量预期削减35%.智利产量下滑同样显著；国有矿企Codelco最大地下铜矿El Teniente发生致命事故后，8月产量同比下降25%，跌至20年来最低水平9.34万吨。英美资源集团与嘉能可合资的Colahuasi矿山产量同样下滑27%，两家公司均下调2025-2026年产量目标。与此同时，泰克资源公司将Quebrada Blanca矿山2025年产量预期下调至17万-19万吨，远低于前期指引。

BMI仍预计2025年全球精炼铜产量将增长2.4%，但预测今年全球铜供应过剩量将小于2024年。

*长期展望*

展望末来十年，BMI认为“大量新项目储备”将为市场注入新增铜供应，但供应增速将持续落后于需求增长。BMI援引国际能源署数据指出，每辆纯电动汽车含铜量超过50公斤是传统汽车的两倍以上；而海上风电等可再生能源设施每兆瓦装机容量需消耗高达8吨铜。

因此该机构预测，随着电气化进程加速和清洁能源基础设施建设推进，长期供应缺口将导致铜价于2034年攀升至每吨17,000美元，

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