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中国储能电池产量崛起：与动力电池比例趋近1:2 海外市场成新增长极

2025-11-19 16:15:47 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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“中国储能电池在生产端正快速扩张，预计今年产量大于550 GWh，动力电池产量则接近1000 GWh。”彭博新能源财经储能分析师史家琰近期在接受界面新闻等媒体采访时披露的这一数据，标志着中国储能电池产量已攀升至动力电池的一半，而这一比例在2020年前后尚维持在1:9至1:10的水平。

产量结构的剧烈变化，勾勒出中国锂电产业的新图景。工信部数据显示，去年中国储能型和动力型锂电池产量分别为260 GWh、826 GWh，前者仅为后者的三成。而今年，锂离子电池总产量将突破1500 GWh，同比增幅约28%，其中宁德时代(300750.SZ)、比亚迪(002594.SZ)、亿纬锂能(300014.SZ)三大巨头产量分别超过600 GWh、近300 GWh和100 GWh，撑起行业产能基石。

储能电池的爆发式增长，直观体现在密集的扩产动作中。近两个月来，储能电池行业扩产积极性显著高于动力电池领域：海辰储能在重庆铜梁区开工的西南智能制造中心项目(一期)二阶段工程，总投资130亿元，规划建设56 GWh储能锂电池及22 GWh储能模组生产基地;派能科技(688063.SH)与合肥肥西县签约的2 GWh储能电池及集成项目，总投资10亿元，将打造电芯与系统组装生产线;远景动力位于宜昌的储能超级工厂也已启动建设，新建40 GWh产能，计划2026年投产新一代700+Ah储能电池产品。

“如果储能行业增速可以持续，未来储能电池和动力电池的比例将很快达到1:1。”史家琰对行业前景做出预判，并从产业格局角度解析了两大电池品类的发展差异。在动力电池领域，中国厂商尚未完全垄断全球市场，韩国、日本企业凭借三元电池技术在海外部分市场仍占据优势，行业整体供需节奏稳健;而储能电池行业正处于高速扩张期，不可避免地出现供给与需求短期错位。

这种错位背后存在多重原因。史家琰指出，当前储能电池产量不仅满足当下装机需求，还提前覆盖了未来增量，且部分需求隐藏在备用电源、移动式储能等未被统计的应用场景中。从装机数据来看，今年全球储能市场新增装机将达240 GWh再创新高，中国市场预计新增130.4 GWh，同比增长22%，明年有望进一步增至165 GWh，同比增幅超25%。

海外市场的爆发式需求，成为储能电池行业增长的重要推手。央视财经报道显示，今年上半年中国储能企业新增海外订单达163 GWh，同比激增246%。龙头企业阳光电源(300274.SZ)前三季度储能产品发货同比增长70%，海外发货占比从去年同期的63%跃升至83%，印证了中国储能产品的全球竞争力。

需求的超预期增长，打乱了此前市场预判的供给端整合节奏。史家琰提供的数据显示，当前储能行业头部企业市场占比未持续提升，部分中小企业凭借新订单侵蚀了头部份额。产能利用率方面，在工信部“反内卷”要求及海外订单增长的双重推动下，行业形势已明显改善：去年行业产能利用率偏低，而今年头部企业已接近满产，全国电池工厂平均产能利用率回升至50%，预计年底将突破这一水平。2024年修订的《锂离子电池行业规范条件》中“上一年度实际产量不低于产能50%”的规定，有效约束了盲目扩产行为。

产品价格与政策环境也为行业发展提供支撑。史家琰表示，磷酸铁锂电池价格及盈利能力正处于回升通道，前置订单带动盈利恢复，电芯厂已具备将上游原材料涨价成本转移给系统集成厂的能力。政策层面，尽管今年初136号文取消强制配储，但新疆、江苏、内蒙古等省份6-8月仍有大额新增储能装机，显示市场需求并未消退。

“中国储能市场正从政策导向转向市场驱动。”史家琰强调，国家加快电力市场建设的举措，将纸面收益转化为确定性收益，推动行业持续上升。不过她也提醒，短期政策带动的收益率可能不及预期，行业仍需过渡性政策支持以应对短期阻力，实现长期健康发展。

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[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 15 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001323s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001347s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001282s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001304s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 48 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000332s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 49 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000308s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 50 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000348s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000408s ]

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