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碳酸锂期货突破 10 万 / 吨！创 1 年半新高，机构提示短期回调风险

2025-11-19 17:15:01 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：石林

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11 月 19 日，碳酸锂期货迎来重磅行情 —— 主力合约 LC2601 盘中突破 100000 元 / 吨大关，最高触及 100080 元 / 吨，日内涨幅近 6%！这不仅是年内新高，更是 2024 年 6 月以来首次站上 10 万整数关口，行情热度持续攀升。
回溯本轮上涨，自 10 月以来碳酸锂期货开启强势反弹，从 71000 元 / 吨左右的低点算起，累计涨幅已超 40%，本周一更是一度上演涨停行情。而这波行情的核心驱动力，正是需求端的持续利好释放：一方面，动力电池进入 10-11 月季节性旺季，需求维持高位；另一方面，储能市场表现超预期，10 月储能项目中标规模达 29.4GWh，同比暴涨 116%，成为需求增长的重要引擎。
基本面的改善进一步强化了上涨逻辑。库存端，上周碳酸锂社库去库 3481 吨，连续多周保持去库态势且去化速度加快；供应端，前期高供应压力有所缓解，预计 11 月产量与 10 月持平，供需紧平衡格局逐步形成。产业端的乐观预期也为市场添薪，赣锋锂业董事长在近期峰会上预判，2026 年碳酸锂需求将增长 30% 至 190 万吨，若需求增速超 30% 甚至达 40%，短期供给刚性可能推动价格突破 15-20 万元 / 吨区间。
不过，在持续大涨之后，市场风险提示信号也同步出现。广州期货交易所公告显示，自 11 月 20 日起，碳酸锂期货 LC2601 合约交易手续费将从成交金额的万分之 0.8 上调至万分之 1.2，日内平今仓手续费同步调整，政策层面已开始适度降温。
机构方面也纷纷提示短期回调压力。华西证券指出，当前价格涨幅已部分透支预期，技术面存在回调需求，且海外资源可能阶段性补充国内缺口，约束上涨弹性；广发期货则认为，市场对强需求的交易已持续较长时间，短期盘面博弈或加剧，后续需重点跟踪大厂复产节奏及旺季效应淡化后的需求边际变化。
对于后续走势，市场普遍认为，供需紧平衡与产业乐观情绪仍将为价格提供支撑，但短期波动可能加大。投资者需警惕回调风险，密切关注需求持续性、供应复产进度及政策调整等关键变量。

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