碳酸锂期货突破 10 万 / 吨！创 1 年半新高，机构提示短期回调风险

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

碳酸锂期货突破 10 万 / 吨！创 1 年半新高，机构提示短期回调风险

2025-11-19 17:15:01 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：石林

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11 月 19 日，碳酸锂期货迎来重磅行情 —— 主力合约 LC2601 盘中突破 100000 元 / 吨大关，最高触及 100080 元 / 吨，日内涨幅近 6%！这不仅是年内新高，更是 2024 年 6 月以来首次站上 10 万整数关口，行情热度持续攀升。
回溯本轮上涨，自 10 月以来碳酸锂期货开启强势反弹，从 71000 元 / 吨左右的低点算起，累计涨幅已超 40%，本周一更是一度上演涨停行情。而这波行情的核心驱动力，正是需求端的持续利好释放：一方面，动力电池进入 10-11 月季节性旺季，需求维持高位；另一方面，储能市场表现超预期，10 月储能项目中标规模达 29.4GWh，同比暴涨 116%，成为需求增长的重要引擎。
基本面的改善进一步强化了上涨逻辑。库存端，上周碳酸锂社库去库 3481 吨，连续多周保持去库态势且去化速度加快；供应端，前期高供应压力有所缓解，预计 11 月产量与 10 月持平，供需紧平衡格局逐步形成。产业端的乐观预期也为市场添薪，赣锋锂业董事长在近期峰会上预判，2026 年碳酸锂需求将增长 30% 至 190 万吨，若需求增速超 30% 甚至达 40%，短期供给刚性可能推动价格突破 15-20 万元 / 吨区间。
不过，在持续大涨之后，市场风险提示信号也同步出现。广州期货交易所公告显示，自 11 月 20 日起，碳酸锂期货 LC2601 合约交易手续费将从成交金额的万分之 0.8 上调至万分之 1.2，日内平今仓手续费同步调整，政策层面已开始适度降温。
机构方面也纷纷提示短期回调压力。华西证券指出，当前价格涨幅已部分透支预期，技术面存在回调需求，且海外资源可能阶段性补充国内缺口，约束上涨弹性；广发期货则认为，市场对强需求的交易已持续较长时间，短期盘面博弈或加剧，后续需重点跟踪大厂复产节奏及旺季效应淡化后的需求边际变化。
对于后续走势，市场普遍认为，供需紧平衡与产业乐观情绪仍将为价格提供支撑，但短期波动可能加大。投资者需警惕回调风险，密切关注需求持续性、供应复产进度及政策调整等关键变量。

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碳酸锂期货突破 10 万 / 吨！创 1 年半新高，机构提示短期回调风险

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