华尔街预期转向：2026年全球铝市将迎结构性短缺

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

华尔街预期转向：2026年全球铝市将迎结构性短缺

2025-11-21 16:52:41 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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近期华尔街对全球铝市场的预期正发生显著修正，摩根士丹利在11月19日发布的重磅研报中明确指出，铝市场的基本面已进入结构性逆转阶段。该行最新预测显示，全球铝市场将在2026年陷入供应短缺，这一时间点较花旗预测的2027年、Wood Mackenzie认为的2028年至少提前一年，核心驱动力源于供需剪刀差的急剧扩大。基于这一判断，摩根士丹利已全面上调铝业股的盈利预测与目标价，认为市场此前严重低估了能源转型对基础金属的消耗速度及电力瓶颈的制约作用，而铝价的上涨动力也正从单纯的宏观预期转向坚实的基本面支撑。

需求端的核心驱动力来自储能系统(ESS)的爆发式增长，这一“隐形巨兽”的铝消耗呈现“暴冲”态势，完全抵消了其他板块的需求疲软。据摩根士丹利渠道调研数据，每100GWh的储能系统(含电池及组件)需消耗16万吨铝，涵盖铸件、箔材及组件用量，而储能电池在中国电池总产量中的占比已从6月的25%迅速攀升至40%以上。伴随装机量的快速扩张，铝消费量随之暴增：2024年全球ESS装机量为350GWh，2025年预计跃升至600GWh，2026年将在此基础上再增长50%或更多，对应铝消费量2025年约96万吨(同比增长71.4%)，2026年仅ESS板块就将带来144万吨的新增铝需求。即便考虑2026年光伏装机量可能从2025年的280-290GW回落至200GW，叠加电动汽车(产量今年迄今增长30%)、家电和电力电缆的稳定需求，ESS的增量仍足以支撑2026年全球铝需求实现超过2%的增长。

与需求端的爆发形成鲜明对比的是，供给端正遭遇电力约束这一硬瓶颈，AI算力与电解铝的“电力战争”进一步挤压了铝冶炼产能。此前市场曾因印尼的产能规划对铝供应持乐观预期，但实际投产进度远不及预期，摩根士丹利预测2026年印尼实际新增铝供应量仅为70万吨，如Xinfa Group在Morowali的后续项目因需自建2.5GW电力设施，投产已推迟至2027年底。更关键的是，电力密集型的铝冶炼正面临AI数据中心的激烈竞争，美国铝业协会数据显示，铝冶炼厂盈亏平衡电价约为40美元/MWh，而科技公司为AI算力愿支付100美元/MWh以上，这种价格劣势导致欧美85万吨闲置产能难以重启，甚至South32的Mozal等现有产能面临电力合同续签风险，2024年全球已因电力问题中断约70万吨铝产能。作为全球最大铝生产与消费国，中国正趋近4500万吨年产能上限，2026年国内供应增量仅预计60-70万吨，综合来看2026年全球铝供应增量仅130-140万吨(同比增长1.9%)，无法满足超2%的需求增长，市场赤字已成定局。

基本面的紧张已直接反映在库存数据中，为铝价构筑了极高安全边际。当前中国铝库存仅60万吨，处于过去五年历史极低水平，而政府推动的铝水直接利用比例提升政策(从当前77%提至2027年90%)，将进一步减少流入期货市场的可交割铝锭数量，加剧货源紧张态势。摩根士丹利强调，这一系列信号表明，铝市逻辑已从“宏观博弈”转向“基本面驱动”，能源转型带来的结构性需求增量与电力约束导致的供给刚性，将共同支撑铝价进入上行周期，而具备低成本产能、布局储能用铝产业链的铝业企业，有望在此次结构性行情中释放显著盈利弹性。

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华尔街预期转向：2026年全球铝市将迎结构性短缺

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