墨西哥对华关税法案引关注美墨贸易博弈现新变量

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

墨西哥对华关税法案引关注美墨贸易博弈现新变量

2025-12-10 17:00:38 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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墨西哥与美国之间的贸易紧张关系正迎来关键转折点。墨西哥国会计划于12月15日年终休会前，对总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆提出的对华加征关税法案完成表决。该法案拟对中国及印度、韩国等未与墨签署自贸协定的亚洲国家，加征最高50%的进口关税，此举被普遍解读为墨西哥以贸易政策协同换取美国钢铝关税松绑的重要筹码，一场围绕北美供应链的地缘博弈正在升温。

这份牵动多方利益的法案自今年9月提交以来历经波折。最初提案涵盖1400余种目标产品，占墨西哥总进口额的8.6%约520亿美元，但因亚洲国家游说、国内依赖中国零部件的制造商强烈反对而进展迟缓。经墨西哥财政部和经济部审查修订后，最终版本对大部分产品给予豁免，仅保留服装、鞋类、钢铁、铝制品及汽车零部件等300余种核心产品。根据墨政府最新测算，新关税政策预计在2026年带来额外519亿比索(约28亿美元)的进口收入，而此前初始版本的预估收入曾高达700亿比索(约37.6亿美元)。

政策背后是墨西哥多重诉求的叠加。表面上，辛鲍姆政府宣称此举旨在保护国内32.5万个工业制造岗位，落实"墨西哥计划"(2025-2030年)中提升产业链自主性的战略目标。深层来看，美国的持续施压成为关键推力——特朗普政府不仅将"中国借道墨西哥进入北美市场"视为心腹大患，更于今年6月将墨西哥钢铝关税从25%上调至50%，而墨西哥作为美国第三大钢铁供应国，2023年对美钢铝出口额超230亿美元，此举直接影响其4.7%的出口规模。墨西哥经济部长此前曾公开谴责美方关税"不公平、不可持续且不合时宜"，而此次对华加税则被视作向美方释放的政策善意。

这一举措被外界解读为构筑"北美堡垒"的重要一步。墨西哥商界普遍期待，通过展现对亚洲进口的限制姿态，能促使美国松绑钢铝关税，但美方具体让步形式尚不明确——是全面降低税率还是引入免税配额仍无定论，美国贸易代表办公室对此始终不予置评。值得注意的是，《美墨加协定》(USMCA)中早已埋下针对"非市场经济国家"的限制条款，为美国在2026年协定审查中掌握主动权提供了制度基础，这也成为墨西哥不得不考量的政策红线。

政策引发的连锁反应已初现端倪。中方迅速作出回应，外交部强调"坚决反对任何别有用心者以各种借口进行贸易胁迫"，商务部亦警告墨方需"慎之又慎"。墨西哥国内争议同样激烈：汽车工业协会表示支持，认为有助于维护公平竞争;但《金融家报》援引分析人士观点称，此举将"惨烈冲击"高度依赖中国零部件的电子业和汽车业，推高生产成本并最终转嫁至消费者。国际贸易顾问莫利纳更直言，墨西哥77%的进口为生产投入品，加税无异于给GDP增长"踩刹车"，是治标不治本的"饮鸩止渴"。

随着国会表决日益临近，这场贸易博弈的走向愈发关键。对于墨西哥而言，如何在取悦美国、保护本土产业与维护供应链稳定之间找到平衡，将是对新政府治理能力的重大考验;而中美在北美供应链的角力，也可能因这一法案进入新的阶段。

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