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铜业巨头自由港发声：美国关税政策威胁全球增长，呼吁国际合作破僵局

2025-04-08 10:29:32 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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美国自由港麦克莫兰公司（Freeport-McMoRan）作为全球重要的铜生产商，对美国关税政策下全球经济增长表达了以下担忧：

1. 关税政策引发经济衰退与通胀风险

自由港首席执行官凯瑟琳·奎克指出，美国对铜等商品加征关税的政策可能抑制全球投资与消费需求，导致经济衰退风险上升。尽管短期内关税可能提升企业利润，但长期来看，铜价下跌将损害行业利益。
这一观点与世界银行的分析一致。世界银行警告称，若美国全面加征10%关税，叠加其他国家的报复性措施，可能使2025年全球经济增长率下降0.3个百分点，加剧经济不确定性。

2. 供应链中断与需求萎缩

美国加征关税可能扰乱全球铜供应链。自由港在全球多国拥有业务，关税政策可能影响其生产布局和成本结构。例如，铜作为工业基础材料，其价格波动将传导至汽车、电子等下游产业，进一步抑制需求。
欧洲央行也警告，美国关税政策或导致全球供应链中断，推高企业成本并削弱竞争力，进而拖累全球经济增长。

3. 呼吁平衡全球供应与政策协调

自由港支持美国增加铜产量以平衡全球供应，但强调需避免政策冲突。奎克认为，市场需通过持续增长抵御衰退风险，而单边关税可能破坏这一平衡。
联合国及多国经济学家同样呼吁通过国际合作解决贸易争端，防止保护主义抬头对全球经济造成系统性冲击。

4. 对行业与市场的具体影响

自由港的担忧反映了金属行业的普遍焦虑。例如，美国对铜加征关税后，金融市场波动加剧，中欧等主要贸易伙伴的紧张关系升级，可能进一步压缩企业利润空间。
穆迪等机构预测，若美国持续加征关税，全球贸易战风险将推高经济衰退概率，甚至可能在2025年引发美国自身衰退。

总结

自由港的担忧凸显了美国关税政策对全球产业链和经济增长的连锁影响。其核心矛盾在于短期保护主义措施与长期全球经济稳定之间的冲突。国际社会普遍呼吁通过对话协调贸易政策，避免陷入“以邻为壑”的恶性循环。

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