Codelco 2025年三线突围：增产稳龙头、高息融资破局、灵活调整对美供货

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

Codelco 2025年三线突围：增产稳龙头、高息融资破局、灵活调整对美供货

2025-04-09 09:52:30 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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全球最大铜生产商智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）正通过增产计划、重返债市融资和调整对美供货策略来应对行业挑战，巩固市场地位。

一、增产计划：从低谷反弹

产量目标
- 2023年Codelco铜产量跌至132.5万吨（25年最低），2024年逐步回升，2025年目标提升至139万吨。
- 关键项目Andesita和Andes Norte预计年内投产，支撑产量增长。
长期挑战
- 矿石品位下降和项目延期仍是主要障碍，如Chuquicamata地下矿改造需追加7.2亿美元投资。
- 债务压力持续上升，2027年预计达315亿美元，但公司预计新项目投产后现金流将改善。

二、重返债市：高成本融资应对资本开支

债券发行情况
- 2024年发行34亿美元债券，2025年1月再发20亿美元，12年期债券收益率达6.45%。
- 融资主要用于矿山升级和债务再融资，智利政府允许Codelco保留30%利润用于再投资。
市场信心与风险
- 尽管融资成本上升，投资者仍对公司偿债能力保持信心。
- 若项目进展不及预期，可能进一步推高债务压力。

三、对美供货策略：应对潜在关税调整

增加现货出口
- 因美国可能加征铜进口关税，Codelco 2025年加大对美现货销售，优先保障长期客户供应。
- 2024年对美出货增长，推动公司税前利润达7.9亿美元。
市场多元化
- 与印度Adani集团达成20万吨/年铜精矿供应协议（2025年起），降低对单一市场的依赖。
- 长期仍看好全球铜需求，尤其是电动车和基建领域。

总结与展望

Codelco正通过增产、融资和市场策略调整应对行业挑战：

产量：若达成139万吨目标，将稳固其全球最大铜生产商地位；
债务：需平衡项目进度与融资成本，避免信用评级下滑；
市场布局：灵活应对贸易政策变化，拓展亚洲市场以分散风险。

关键风险包括项目延期、铜价波动及劳工问题，但管理层对2025年复苏持谨慎乐观态度。

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Codelco 2025年三线突围：增产稳龙头、高息融资破局、灵活调整对美供货

一、增产计划：从低谷反弹

二、重返债市：高成本融资应对资本开支

三、对美供货策略：应对潜在关税调整

总结与展望

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