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Codelco 2025年三线突围：增产稳龙头、高息融资破局、灵活调整对美供货

2025-04-09 09:52:30 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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全球最大铜生产商智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）正通过增产计划、重返债市融资和调整对美供货策略来应对行业挑战，巩固市场地位。

一、增产计划：从低谷反弹

产量目标
- 2023年Codelco铜产量跌至132.5万吨（25年最低），2024年逐步回升，2025年目标提升至139万吨。
- 关键项目Andesita和Andes Norte预计年内投产，支撑产量增长。
长期挑战
- 矿石品位下降和项目延期仍是主要障碍，如Chuquicamata地下矿改造需追加7.2亿美元投资。
- 债务压力持续上升，2027年预计达315亿美元，但公司预计新项目投产后现金流将改善。

二、重返债市：高成本融资应对资本开支

债券发行情况
- 2024年发行34亿美元债券，2025年1月再发20亿美元，12年期债券收益率达6.45%。
- 融资主要用于矿山升级和债务再融资，智利政府允许Codelco保留30%利润用于再投资。
市场信心与风险
- 尽管融资成本上升，投资者仍对公司偿债能力保持信心。
- 若项目进展不及预期，可能进一步推高债务压力。

三、对美供货策略：应对潜在关税调整

增加现货出口
- 因美国可能加征铜进口关税，Codelco 2025年加大对美现货销售，优先保障长期客户供应。
- 2024年对美出货增长，推动公司税前利润达7.9亿美元。
市场多元化
- 与印度Adani集团达成20万吨/年铜精矿供应协议（2025年起），降低对单一市场的依赖。
- 长期仍看好全球铜需求，尤其是电动车和基建领域。

总结与展望

Codelco正通过增产、融资和市场策略调整应对行业挑战：

产量：若达成139万吨目标，将稳固其全球最大铜生产商地位；
债务：需平衡项目进度与融资成本，避免信用评级下滑；
市场布局：灵活应对贸易政策变化，拓展亚洲市场以分散风险。

关键风险包括项目延期、铜价波动及劳工问题，但管理层对2025年复苏持谨慎乐观态度。

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