几内亚铝土矿供给风险推升氧化铝价格，产能过剩格局下涨势或受限—中金预计三季度价格在2900-3000元/吨区间

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

几内亚铝土矿供给风险推升氧化铝价格，产能过剩格局下涨势或受限—中金预计三季度价格在2900-3000元/吨区间

2025-05-20 11:10:51 来源：新华财经责任编辑：管理员

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几内亚铝土矿供给风险发酵叠加国内氧化铝因亏损减产致现货库存下降，推动氧化铝价格自底部抬升约17.4%，上周五夜盘主力合约一度触及涨停，本质是对几内亚铝土矿资源博弈风险的定价，该国拔高铝产业链价值的诉求或引发矿端与冶炼端主导权博弈，加剧供应链风险。但中金公司指出，氧化铝因亏损减产不会改变产能过剩格局，价格上涨将带来复产，其或围绕盈亏平衡点波动、整体维持微利，且铝土矿-氧化铝-电解铝产业链呈漏斗状逐级宽松格局，氧化铝价格以铝土矿成本为锚，当前主力合约隐含的几内亚铝土矿CIF价格85美元/吨，进一步上行空间有限，预计三季度矿价中枢75美元/吨，对应氧化铝价格2900-3000元/吨区间。

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几内亚铝土矿供给风险推升氧化铝价格，产能过剩格局下涨势或受限—中金预计三季度价格在2900-3000元/吨区间

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