中国宏桥 2025 年上半年业绩预增 35% 背后的增长逻辑与行业启示

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

中国宏桥 2025 年上半年业绩预增 35% 背后的增长逻辑与行业启示

2025-06-24 17:21:20 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

分享到：

打印

复制链接

一、业绩预增与市场反应

中国宏桥6月23日公告，2025年上半年净利润预计同比增长约35%。若以2024年上半年归母净利润100.08亿元推算，2025年上半年净利润或超135亿元。市场反应积极，6月24日港股收盘，股价单日涨幅6.42%，凸显龙头稀缺价值。

二、量价齐升驱动因素

2025年上半年沪铝价格上涨，中国宏桥铝合金、氧化铝产品价格因新能源汽车、光伏需求增长而上升，其中铝合金均价涨幅或达8%-10%。同时，云南项目投产、印尼产能达产，铝合金销量增幅或达5%-7%，氧化铝销量增速有望达8%-10%，推动毛利提升。

三、行业格局与企业优势

国内电解铝产能受限，2025年新增仅45万吨。中国宏桥凭借646万吨电解铝产能（占全国14%）、1950万吨氧化铝产能（全球第一），以及资源、成本优势，在行业中占据主导。新能源领域需求增长，拉动铝精深加工产品销量超30%。

四、未来展望与风险

机构预测2025年电解铝均价或升至21000元/吨，若价格维持，中国宏桥全年净利润有望突破300亿元。不过，几内亚政策与美联储降息影响需关注，但中长期看，公司有望实现估值跃迁。

免责声明
北方有色网提供的信息仅供参考，不作为决策建议，客户需自主判断决策，并自行承担相关后果。本报告版权归北方有色网所有，仅限客户自身使用。如需引用，须联系申请授权；未经书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以任何形式传播、发布、篡改本报告。北方有色网保留追究任何侵权行为法律责任的权利。

基本文件流程错误 SQL 调试

/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/public/index.php ( 0.75 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/start.php ( 0.72 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/base.php ( 2.60 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Loader.php ( 21.07 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/composer/autoload_static.php ( 3.95 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/symfony/polyfill-mbstring/bootstrap.php ( 8.26 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/ezyang/htmlpurifier/library/HTMLPurifier.composer.php ( 0.10 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/vendor/topthink/think-captcha/src/helper.php ( 1.94 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Route.php ( 60.23 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Config.php ( 6.38 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Validate.php ( 41.63 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Error.php ( 3.75 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/convention.php ( 10.37 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/App.php ( 21.51 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Request.php ( 49.78 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/config.php ( 10.17 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/database.php ( 1.96 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Hook.php ( 4.71 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/tags.php ( 0.96 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common.php ( 37.25 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Env.php ( 1.21 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/helper.php ( 17.30 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Lang.php ( 7.41 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Log.php ( 6.05 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/lang/zh-cn.php ( 11.81 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/route.php ( 4.08 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/index/controller/News.php ( 30.40 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/index/controller/Base.php ( 3.86 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Controller.php ( 6.07 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/traits/controller/Jump.php ( 4.90 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/View.php ( 6.77 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/view/driver/Think.php ( 5.64 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Template.php ( 44.90 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/template/driver/File.php ( 2.24 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/library/RedisUtil.php ( 0.83 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Cache.php ( 6.10 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/cache/driver/Redis.php ( 5.37 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/cache/Driver.php ( 5.98 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/Para.php ( 0.09 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Model.php ( 69.14 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Db.php ( 6.67 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/connector/Mysql.php ( 3.89 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/Connection.php ( 29.97 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/Query.php ( 96.74 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/builder/Mysql.php ( 4.53 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/db/Builder.php ( 31.55 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Debug.php ( 7.13 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/News.php ( 3.74 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/Cate.php ( 0.59 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/Admin.php ( 0.09 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/consts/NewsConst.php ( 0.28 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/admin/model/IndexCate.php ( 0.45 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/consts/CommonConst.php ( 0.71 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/runtime/temp/ae754a079b49dad486f0fa457bc10d5b.php ( 139.96 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/application/common/consts/CacheConst.php ( 0.26 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Url.php ( 12.72 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/Response.php ( 8.28 KB )
/websites/wwwroot/cmcc/thinkphp/library/think/debug/Html.php ( 4.17 KB )

[ DB ] CONNECT:[ UseTime:0.000440s ] mysql:host=127.0.0.1;port=3306;dbname=ysscdb;charset=utf8mb4
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_para` [ RunTime:0.000716s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000444s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_news` [ RunTime:0.000494s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_news` WHERE `id` = 3350 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000395s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_cate` [ RunTime:0.000434s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 102 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000305s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_admin` [ RunTime:0.000447s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_admin` WHERE `id` = 4 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000319s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 11 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000300s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT `id`,`title`,`url` FROM `tb_news` WHERE `cate_id` = 98 ORDER BY `submit_date` DESC LIMIT 10 [ RunTime:0.004005s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_index_cate` [ RunTime:0.000470s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_index_cate` WHERE `cate_aid` = 1 ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.000351s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=10 and cate_cid=27 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=113 and mode02=-1 and mode03=941 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.198971s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 10 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000457s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=11 and cate_cid=38 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=14 and area_cid=91 and mode01=184 and mode02=621 and mode03=1095 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.189199s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 11 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000460s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=12 and cate_cid=46 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=325 and mode02=-1 and mode03=1231 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.190649s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 12 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000363s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=13 and cate_cid=49 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=377 and mode02=696 and mode03=1275 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.196645s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 13 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000463s ]
[ SQL ] select dt,num from tb_price where check_status=1 and cate_aid=1 and cate_bid=14 and cate_cid=54 and area_aid=1 and area_bid=9 and area_cid=41 and mode01=419 and mode02=-1 and mode03=1400 and mode04=-1 and mode05=1899 order by dt desc limit 2 [ RunTime:0.199169s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `id` = 14 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000441s ]
[ SQL ] SHOW COLUMNS FROM `tb_advert` [ RunTime:0.000735s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000351s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 10 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 8 [ RunTime:0.001455s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 11 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 8 [ RunTime:0.001372s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 2 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 6 [ RunTime:0.001447s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 12 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 5 [ RunTime:0.001307s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 13 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 5 [ RunTime:0.001294s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC LIMIT 6 [ RunTime:0.001380s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3246 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001274s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3248 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001255s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3245 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001272s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 10 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001290s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 11 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001280s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 12 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001322s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 13 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001366s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 14 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001266s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 19 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001380s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 15 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001361s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 16 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001252s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 17 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001263s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_cate` WHERE `pid` = 3 AND ( `id` < 3871 AND `id` NOT IN (25,3243,3244) ) ORDER BY `sortid` ASC [ RunTime:0.001359s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 48 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000306s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 49 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000295s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_advert` WHERE `id` = 50 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000300s ]
[ SQL ] SELECT * FROM `tb_para` WHERE `id` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000363s ]

中国宏桥 2025 年上半年业绩预增 35% 背后的增长逻辑与行业启示

有色金属报告推荐