麦肯锡:磁体稀土需求量将扩大3倍

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

麦肯锡:磁体稀土需求量将扩大3倍

2025-07-30 17:25:56 来源：自然资源部责任编辑：袁梦

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据Mining.com网站报道，麦肯锡公司(McKinsey & Company)的一份报告预测，随着能源转型加快，到2035年稀土永磁市场规模将扩大三倍，这将使得全球供应面临更大挑战。

稀土永磁是目前市场上能用于电机和风力涡轮发电机的最强磁体。这种磁体通常需要四种稀土元素作为原料：钕(Nd)、镨(Pr)、镝(Dy)和铽(Tb)，前两种是主要组份，后两者是添加剂，用于更必须的场合来提高性能。

麦肯锡估计，尽管数量仅占稀土总产量的30%，但永磁用稀土份额占整个稀土市场总值的80%。

由于其对清洁能源技术的重要性，全球磁体用稀土将从2022年的5.9万吨增至2035年的17.6万吨。

麦肯锡补充说，这种增长主要驱动力是电动汽车普及率的强劲增长，其速度超过铜线圈磁铁对稀土的替代，另外一种因素是可再生能源高速发展。

同时，供应量有可能减少高达30%。地缘政治不稳可能加剧稀土供应短缺。

麦肯锡警告，尽管世界各国都在努力发展本国稀土供应链，但供应链在未来5至10年很难实现多元化。

建设新的采选设施投产周期长、环境障碍和成本高昂，二次资源比如回收就变得越来越重要。

目前，超过80%的稀土废料来自消费电子产品、电气或内燃机汽车中的零件，所有这些都使用较小的磁体用于电机、制动器和传感器。

然而，麦肯锡认为，到2050年，电动汽车和风力涡轮机对磁性稀土元素的使用增加可能会导致废料来源扩大。纯电动汽车传动系统、工业电机和风力涡轮机可能会产生类似规模的废杂稀土，从而提供一个新的更大的磁铁源，其中含有更高比例的有价值的重稀土元素。

麦肯锡估计，消费前废杂稀土大约为4万吨，它们来自磁铁的设计和制造环节，消费后废杂稀土大约为4.1万吨，来自达到寿命期限后的各种终端用品。

麦肯锡认为，与消费前废杂稀土分布比较集中相比，消费后废杂稀土在地理上分布更加分散，但回收起来比较困难。

麦肯锡表示，消费后稀土元素回收将需要专门分离磁铁进行进一步加工，这是目前专注于高价值或高产量材料(如金和铜或铝和钢)的现有回收价值链中尚未采用的做法。

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麦肯锡:磁体稀土需求量将扩大3倍

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