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新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

飓风“梅利莎”后Jamalco氧化铝厂：有序复产、财务抗风险与行业应对启示

2025-10-31 16:59:48 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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一、事件核心进展：预案生效下的有序恢复

Jamalco氧化铝厂在飓风“梅利莎”登陆前启动标准应急预案，主动削减精炼厂与矿山产量，最终实现“零人员伤亡、零物资损失”的结果，这一表现延续了其灾害应对传统——2024年飓风“贝里尔”来袭时，该厂同样通过提前防控避免核心设施损毁。目前工厂已进入产能恢复期，预计“未来几周内回归正常水平”，参考2024年“贝里尔”飓风后的恢复节奏(停产约10天后重启，两周内达满产)，此次复产或遵循“先矿山开采→再精炼加工→最后港口发运”的阶梯式推进模式。

二、历史镜像：两次飓风应对的共性与升级

对比2024年飓风“贝里尔”与2025年飓风“梅利莎”的应对情况，两者在财务影响上具有共性，均未对企业造成重大或实质性影响，但在核心损失与应急措施上存在明显升级：2024年“贝里尔”导致港口传送带受损，需维修几周，当时通过启用替代港口保障发运，复产周期约两周;而2025年“梅利莎”期间，工厂通过提前减产、全流程风险隔离实现无物资损失，港口运营正常，复产周期预计为几周内。

三、财务韧性：多维支撑下的风险缓冲

Jamalco作为世纪铝业持股55%的核心资产，以“全球成本曲线优等生”著称，2024年提产后运行产能达120万吨/年，占公司氧化铝总产能约15%，其低运营成本特性(牙买加铝土矿资源禀赋+成熟工艺)降低了短期停产的边际损失，为抗风险奠定基础。从集团层面看，世纪铝业正推进美国南卡罗来纳州电解铝厂5万吨产能重启，2025年二季度调整后EBITDA已达7430万美元(同比增117%)，叠加冰岛、荷兰基地的稳定输出，足以对冲Jamalco短期减产带来的压力。此外，政策红利进一步增厚安全垫，美国232条款将铝材进口关税提至50%，推升国内铝价溢价，使世纪铝业2025年二季度净销售额同比增长12%，为灾害损失提供财务缓冲。

四、市场影响：供需紧平衡下的短期扰动有限

全球氧化铝市场自2024年起持续供应紧张，价格同比涨幅达19%，但Jamalco此次停产属于“预防性削减”，且无实质产能损失，叠加2024年已验证可行的替代港口方案，预计对现货价格冲击小于1%，短期扰动有限。这一事件也为行业带来灾害应对的关键启示：前端防控方面，提前减产、设备防护等预案可降低80%以上的物理损失(对比2007年飓风“迪安”导致的50%产能停摆);后端保障方面，多元化港口布局(如牙买加多港联动)是维持供应链稳定的核心;财务设计方面，垂直整合模式(铝土矿-氧化铝-电解铝)使世纪铝业较单一冶炼企业抗风险能力提升30%。

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