基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极电解液隔膜隔膜电解液电芯

德国商业银行大宗商品价格预测：金属分化显著，能源温和上行

2025-11-13 10:11:52 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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2025年11月中旬，德国商业银行（Commerzbank）发布最新大宗商品价格预测报告，对基础金属、能源等关键品类的前景进行全面重估。报告显示，受供需结构变革与绿色转型需求驱动，大宗商品市场呈现明显分化格局，其中铜、铝、锌等工业金属价格预期大幅上调，镍价则逆势下调，能源产品则维持温和上行判断。

基础金属：铜价领涨，镍价承压

在基础金属板块，该行对多数品种持乐观态度，核心逻辑围绕新能源产业需求爆发与供应端约束展开，仅镍品种因供需失衡面临下调压力。

价格上调品种：铜、铝、锌成核心亮点

铜价成为本次预测中最受青睐的品种，德国商业银行将年底目标价从每吨9,600美元大幅上调至10,500美元，上调幅度达9.4%。这一调整主要基于全球铜供需缺口扩大的判断——2025年全球铜需求预计增长3.5%，新能源汽车、光伏风电等绿色产业的铜消费量占比已提升至28%，而铜矿开采产能增速仅1.2%，库存持续去化支撑价格上行。

铝价与锌价同步获得上调：铝价预估从每吨2,600美元升至2,900美元，涨幅11.5%；锌价从每吨2,800美元上调至3,000美元，涨幅7.1%。铝价上涨得益于双重驱动：一方面汽车轻量化、光伏边框等需求增量显著，另一方面中国“双碳”目标推动电解铝企业绿电占比提升，西南地区丰水期电价下降进一步优化成本结构。锌价则受矿端供应紧张支撑，国内锌精矿加工费（TC/RC）持续下行，LME锌库存处于历史低位，基建领域稳增长政策也为需求提供托底。

价格下调品种：镍价面临供需双重压力

与铜铝锌形成鲜明对比的是，镍价预期被从每吨16,000美元下调至15,000美元，跌幅6.25%。该行指出，镍价承压源于“供应增加+需求疲软”的双重制约：国内精炼镍产量持续释放，6月产量达58.46万吨，环比增长6%，社会库存小幅累积；同时新能源电池领域对镍的需求增速不及预期，替代材料应用扩大进一步压制价格空间。

能源产品：原油维持温和上行趋势

针对能源产品，德国商业银行给出相对稳健的预测。报告预计2026年WTI原油交易价格为每桶57美元，布伦特原油价格为每桶60美元，显示油价将在当前水平基础上维持温和上行。这一判断基于全球能源供需的动态平衡——OPEC+减产协议持续生效支撑油价底部，而全球经济复苏节奏放缓则限制上涨空间，整体呈现“低波动、稳增长”特征。

市场影响与展望

德国商业银行强调，此次价格预测修正反映出机构对大宗商品长期供需格局的根本性转变形成共识。铜、铝等工业金属的上涨并非短期脉冲，而是绿色转型驱动的结构性牛市，这一趋势可能持续至2026年之后。对于投资者而言，需重点关注两类机会：一是铜铝锌等涨价品种的资源类龙头企业，二是新能源产业链中金属消费占比高的细分领域。

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