摩根大通预测 2025 年铝价或飙升至 2850 美元 / 吨！全球供应短缺超 60 万吨成主因

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

摩根大通预测 2025 年铝价或飙升至 2850 美元 / 吨！全球供应短缺超 60 万吨成主因

2025-03-06 09:14:47 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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根据摩根大通 3 月 5 日发布的报告，2025 年全球铝市场预计将出现超过 60 万吨的供应短缺，这一赤字基本面预计将推动铝价在第四季度上涨至每吨 2,850 美元。这一预测主要基于以下因素：

供应端压力

1.中国产能受限：中国作为全球最大铝生产国，冶炼产能受限于政府设定的 4,500 万吨上限，且铝土矿、氧化铝等原材料供应紧张，叠加环保政策趋严，进一步制约了产量增长。

2.能源成本高企：铝冶炼属于高耗能行业，全球能源价格波动（如欧洲电价高企）导致部分地区生产成本攀升，甚至出现亏损，迫使部分产能退出。

3.供应链脆弱性：地缘政治风险（如俄罗斯对美铝出口恢复可能影响中国进口）、全球供应链中断等因素加剧了供应不确定性。

需求端增长

1.能源转型与轻量化需求：铝在新能源汽车、光伏、电网等领域的应用持续扩大，同时汽车轻量化趋势推动铝消费增长。

2.传统行业复苏：建筑、包装等领域需求逐步回暖，进一步支撑铝价。

其他机构观点

美国银行：预测 2025 年铝价或达每吨 3,000 美元，强调中国以外地区增产意愿有限，且欧洲铝工业萎缩加剧供应缺口。

瑞银集团：预计铝价将突破每吨 2,500 美元，需求增长虽放缓但仍高于原生供应增速。

紫金天风期货：测算全球铝短缺 32 万吨，国内市场供需偏紧或推高利润中枢。

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摩根大通预测 2025 年铝价或飙升至 2850 美元 / 吨！全球供应短缺超 60 万吨成主因

供应端压力

1.中国产能受限：中国作为全球最大铝生产国，冶炼产能受限于政府设定的 4,500 万吨上限，且铝土矿、氧化铝等原材料供应紧张，叠加环保政策趋严，进一步制约了产量增长。

需求端增长

其他机构观点

美国银行：预测 2025 年铝价或达每吨 3,000 美元，强调中国以外地区增产意愿有限，且欧洲铝工业萎缩加剧供应缺口。

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