高盛：美国铜关税预期或致库存激增全球短缺支撑价格上行

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

高盛：美国铜关税预期或致库存激增全球短缺支撑价格上行

2025-03-12 14:38:46 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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高盛周二在一份报告中指出，受美国政府计划征收关税前美国铜价上涨推动，未来几个月美国铜净进口量或增长50%-100%。

该行分析显示，在美国启动对铜进口可能征收关税以重建本土生产的调查后，当前2025年5月美国期铜价格较全球基准伦敦金属交易所（LME）报价高出756美元/吨。

尽管关税尚未实施，但高盛预计年底前将对进口铜加征25%关税，这将导致进口激增，推动美国铜库存至第三季度末增加20-30万吨。该行预计美国铜库存将从当前的9.5万吨增至第三季度末的至少30-40万吨，占全球报告库存的45%-60%，从而造成其他地区铜库存极度紧张。

该行同时预测，受强劲的电气化需求、中国刺激政策及矿山供应增速放缓影响，2025年全球铜市场将出现18万吨短缺，且因季节性因素集中于下半年。高盛表示："我们维持2024年第三季度LME三个月期铜均价10,200美元/吨的预测，主要关注库存错位影响。"

该行进一步指出："基于LME逆价差（现货较期货溢价）将扩大至关闭美国进口套利空间的预期，我们预测9月-12月逆价差最高达350美元/吨。"

周二，LME三个月期铜收涨134美元或1.41%，报9,662.50美元/吨。

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高盛：美国铜关税预期或致库存激增 全球短缺支撑价格上行

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高盛：美国铜关税预期或致库存激增全球短缺支撑价格上行