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高盛：美国铜关税预期或致库存激增全球短缺支撑价格上行

2025-03-12 14:38:46 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：韩泽楷

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高盛周二在一份报告中指出，受美国政府计划征收关税前美国铜价上涨推动，未来几个月美国铜净进口量或增长50%-100%。

该行分析显示，在美国启动对铜进口可能征收关税以重建本土生产的调查后，当前2025年5月美国期铜价格较全球基准伦敦金属交易所（LME）报价高出756美元/吨。

尽管关税尚未实施，但高盛预计年底前将对进口铜加征25%关税，这将导致进口激增，推动美国铜库存至第三季度末增加20-30万吨。该行预计美国铜库存将从当前的9.5万吨增至第三季度末的至少30-40万吨，占全球报告库存的45%-60%，从而造成其他地区铜库存极度紧张。

该行同时预测，受强劲的电气化需求、中国刺激政策及矿山供应增速放缓影响，2025年全球铜市场将出现18万吨短缺，且因季节性因素集中于下半年。高盛表示："我们维持2024年第三季度LME三个月期铜均价10,200美元/吨的预测，主要关注库存错位影响。"

该行进一步指出："基于LME逆价差（现货较期货溢价）将扩大至关闭美国进口套利空间的预期，我们预测9月-12月逆价差最高达350美元/吨。"

周二，LME三个月期铜收涨134美元或1.41%，报9,662.50美元/吨。

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高盛：美国铜关税预期或致库存激增 全球短缺支撑价格上行

高盛：美国铜关税预期或致库存激增全球短缺支撑价格上行