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投行预计近期LME铜价将上涨

2025-03-14 10:54:04 来源：文华财经责任编辑：韩泽楷

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花旗集团(Citigroup)预计，LME铜价将在未来三个月触及每吨1万美元，因为在美国关税时间表变得更加明确之前，全球市场仍然紧

包括Max Layton在内的花旗集团分析师在一份电子邮件报告中写道，“我们认为美国以外实物市场收紧可能会持续到5月16月，暂时抵消潜在关税带来的价格阻力。”

花旗的展望标志着与2月份的预测相比发生了转变，当时花旗预计，第一季度铜价将降至每吨8500美元，然而，花旗仍然预计，"一旦关税导致美国铜进口需求崩溃，我们预计随着第232条铜关税实施的临近，价格将回落。”

此外，供应限制依然存在。全球最大的铜生产国智利1月产量环比下降24%，创下9个月来的最低水平，而冶炼厂的需求继续增长。

摩根士丹利亦预计，在美国可能加征关税的预期下，铜价将进一步上涨。

摩根士丹利指出:“由于尚未征收关税，将金属运往美国的动机很强，世界其他地区的市场也会收紧。”

该行补充说，"在期货价格"滚动下跌"到现货价格的情况下，做多一种处于正价差结构(期货溢价)的商品可能具有挑战性。然而，在逆价差结构(现货溢价)中，“它可以滚动上涨”，这种转变往往可以推动投资者流入。”

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