关税风暴下美国铜价刷新历史纪录，机构预计铜荒时代或已开启

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

关税风暴下美国铜价刷新历史纪录，机构预计铜荒时代或已开启

2025-03-26 08:57:42 来源：财联社责任编辑：韩泽楷

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周二（3月25日）纽约时段，美国铜期货价格持续走高，刷新了去年5月录得的历史前高。

纽约商品交易所（NYMEX）铜期货主连价格一度涨超2.5%，最高报5.2255美元/磅，超过了5月20日创下的5.199美元的纪录。年初至今，美国铜价已累涨近30%，与之相比，前两年的涨幅仅为1.87%和3.39%。

纽约商品交易所铜期货主连价格日线图

媒体分析称，铜价飙升的主要原因是特朗普政府可能会对进口铜征收高额关税。货运之情人士上周就透露，美国港口将被大量进口铜的涌入所淹没，因为贸易商正在赶在关税生效前抢运货物。

一个月前，特朗普签署行政命令，对是否向进口铜产品加征关税展开贸易调查。他还在社交平台发文称，他已要求美国商务部长和贸易代表对与铜进口相关的贸易进行研究，以重振美国的铜工业。

特朗普表示，美国工业依赖铜，而关税将有助于重建美国铜工业，并加强美国国防，铜应该在美国制造。他还多次提到，“对等关税”将于下周三（4月2日）正式实施。

高盛、花旗等大行预计，美国还将在年内宣布对铜征收25%的进口税。

由于铜的流向，美国铜价与伦敦金属交易所（LME）的全球基准价格出现前所未有的脱节。周一时，NYMEX和LME价格之间的差距创下每吨1,400多美元的历史新高。

对冲基金Quantix Commodities投资者解决方案主管Matt Schwab在接受媒体采访时表示，“关税的不确定性，尤其是何时实施”应该会使价差保持在较高的水平。

Amalgamated Metal Trading研究主管Dan Smith指出，NYMEX和LME较长期合约的价差扩大，这表明“对关税的预期正在上升。”

Mercuria金属交易主管Kostas Bintas估计，约有50万吨铜正在流向美国，这将导致全球其他市场铜供应严重短缺，随着短缺情况恶化，LME的铜价也可能跃升至每吨1.2万美元以上。

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