花旗因关税冲击下调大宗商品价格预期

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

花旗因关税冲击下调大宗商品价格预期

2025-04-09 08:39:36 来源：花旗研究责任编辑：管理员

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4 月 7 日（周一），花旗研究（Citi Research）受最新关税政策影响，大幅下调大宗商品价格预期，将 0 - 3 个月布伦特原油价格预估调降至 60 美元 / 桶，同时将 0 - 3 个月铜和铝价预估分别下调至 8,000 美元 / 吨和 2,200 美元 / 吨。

上周，美国总统特朗普宣布对所有进口到美国的商品征收 10% 的基础关税，并对包括美国一些最大贸易伙伴在内的数十个国家提高关税。对此，中国宣布自 4 月 10 日起对所有美国商品加征 34% 的附加关税。受贸易战升级影响，周一国际油价暴跌近 4%，伦敦基本金属延续跌势，市场对经济衰退的担忧持续升温。

花旗分析师在一份报告中表示：“这些目标位完全有可能在未来一周内实现，如果无法实现，则很有可能在未来 3 个月内实现。” 该银行在报告中指出，征收关税的实际影响应会加倍偏空，因为在过去几个月大宗商品市场收紧后，商品和大宗商品的预先购买和囤货将完全逆转。

花旗分析师在报告中称：“我们认为，本周因贸易协议头条新闻或 4 月 9 日关税推迟实施而引发的任何反弹，都将提供逢高卖出的机会。” 花旗分析师还补充称：“美国天然气和黄金短期内应会跑赢。”

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花旗因关税冲击下调大宗商品价格预期

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