高盛预测：2025 年铝市场供需反转与价格变局

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

高盛预测：2025 年铝市场供需反转与价格变局

2025-04-16 08:51:43 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：管理员

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高盛对 2025 年全球铝市场的预期发生了重大转变，最新预计该市场将出现 58 万吨的过剩情况，而在此之前，高盛预估铝市场为短缺 7.6 万吨。高盛在其报告中指出，全球铝总需求增长预测下调是主要原因，预计 2025 年铝需求同比仅增长 1.1%，2026 年增长 2.3%，这主要是受到全球国内生产总值（GDP）增长放缓的冲击。

受此影响，高盛对铝价的预期也出现了大幅调整。预计到 2025 年第三季度，铝价将跌至每吨 2000 美元的月度平均低点。尽管高盛认为 2025 年后铝价仍有上涨空间，但由于 2025 年至 2026 年期间积累的额外供应将抑制铝价涨幅，上涨幅度不会像之前估计的那么大。到 2025 年 12 月，铝价预计将反弹至每公吨 2300 美元，而此前的预测为每公吨 2650 美元。截至格林尼治标准时间周一下午 1 点，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铝的交易价格约为每公吨 2392 美元。到 2026 年 12 月，铝价预计为每公吨 2720 美元，相较于此前预测的 3100 美元有所降低；预计 2027 年铝价平均约为每吨 2800 美元，届时高盛预计市场将出现 72.2 万吨的短缺。

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高盛预测：2025 年铝市场供需反转与价格变局

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