花旗上调铜铝短期目标至 8800/2300 美元，警告中期或因美国关税暴跌

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

花旗上调铜铝短期目标至 8800/2300 美元，警告中期或因美国关税暴跌

2025-04-17 09:19:06 来源：财联社责任编辑：管理员

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一、短期上调驱动因素

政策与需求共振：美国暂缓激进关税、中国逢低采购新能源及基建用铜铝，叠加废铜囤积和电解铝产能瓶颈，推高短期价格（铜 0-3 月目标调至 8800 美元 / 吨，铝至 2300 美元 / 吨）。供应链紧张：北美废铜现货升水扩大、LME 铝库存同比降 28% 至 45.2 万吨，加剧短期供需错配。

二、长期看跌核心逻辑

关税滞后冲击：美国对中国商品高关税抑制全球铜消费（占中国总需求 2.5% 的输美终端产品耗铜或减半），制造业 PMI 持续收缩（美 3 月 49%、全球 49.9%），压制工业金属需求。

库存周期逆转：当前低库存或随进口订单暴跌（美 4 月首周环比降 64%）快速累积，铜铝库存二季度或回升至 30 万吨、50 万吨以上，打破紧平衡。

三、历史经验与市场情绪

2018 年钢铝关税先例显示，关税推高成本反伤国内制造业，当前市场 "抢铜潮" 情绪退潮后，价格将回归基本面主导。

四、风险与策略

短期：关注跨期套利，利用近月贴水；中期逢高做空铜（目标 7500 美元 / 吨）；长期布局铝多头（产能瓶颈 + 新能源需求）。

核心矛盾：短期政策缓和与供应链扰动支撑价格，长期关税压制需求与库存累积主导下行，需警惕情绪退潮后的基本面回归。

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花旗上调铜铝短期目标至 8800/2300 美元，警告中期或因美国关税暴跌

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