美国放缓施压，铜价先抑后扬

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

美国放缓施压，铜价先抑后扬

2025-05-06 10:05:22 来源：金源期货责任编辑：韩泽楷

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五一假期沪铜休市，伦铜上周下挫至9100美元一线后反弹至9300美金上方，铜价先抑后扬主因部分海外投行给出美国经济的浅衰退预期，叠加中美4月制造业PMI双双陷入姜缩，令市场担忧全球需求下行；而后中美贸易局势并未剑拔弩张，种种迹象表明两国正在逐渐修复和解决贸易冲突，美国的全球关税政策或趋于松弛，市场风险偏好回升，海外铜矿和精铜供应紧缺依然提供强劲的基本面支撑。

宏观方面：美国一季度GDP年化季环比录得-0.3%，较去年第四季变大唱回落，国防支出的大幅下隆、高关税导致需求放缓，以及进口激增减扣均为主要因素，美国一季度个人消费支出PCE季环比仅增长18%，为近2年来的最低水平，美国低收入人群已面临高物价的现实压力，多数企业受供应链干扰严重，纷纷下调今年业绩指引，然后实际消费端的表现则差强人意。自美国上周大幅下调对华关税以来，中美贸易局势趋于缓和，种种迹象表明两国正在积极解决贸易冲突，特朗普或已意识到中方的强硬立场使其占不到任何便宜。其当前的支持率为上任以来的最低水平，特朗普未来或通过关税“降级”来重塑市场信心，更重要的是本月开始的美债巨额付息压力令其难有空间对经济体施压，我们认为贸易战转入战略谈判的趋势渐浓。

产业方面：国家统计局数据显示，一季度我国规模以上有色工业增加值增速同比增长6.6%。

中美贸易局势并未剑拔弩张，种种迹象表明两国正积极修复贸易冲突，离岸人民币假期大幅升值，因其经济下行风险以及巨量的美债到期压力背景下市场开始交易美国未来趋于态度软化和关税降级；基本面矿端趋紧依旧，非美地区精铜供应偏紧，国内进入低库存，内贸铜美国短期或放缓对外施压节奏，升水持续上行，预计沪铜短期将震荡上行并再次考验前期阻力。

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美国放缓施压，铜价先抑后扬

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