高盛铝价展望：印尼产能过剩施压 2026 年触底，长期或回升至 2150-2550 美元区间

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

高盛铝价展望：印尼产能过剩施压 2026 年触底，长期或回升至 2150-2550 美元区间

2025-06-04 10:02:02 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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一、价格预测调整：短期承压与长期平衡

高盛预计铝价 2026 年初跌至2100 美元 / 吨低点，抑制印尼产能过度投资，随后随供需平衡回升至2150-2550 美元 / 吨。2026 年、2027 年预测分别下调至 2230 美元、2500 美元，主因印尼产能加速释放（2026 年新增 150 万吨，过剩 100 万吨）、氧化铝及能源成本下行。

二、印尼产能扩张：政策驱动与供需冲击

印尼三座 50 万吨级冶炼厂提前至 2026 年年中投产，叠加政策禁止原矿出口，产能扩张不可逆。2026 年全球铝供应过剩将达 2020 年以来最大规模，相当于消费量 1.2%，直接压制价格。

三、成本压力：氧化铝疲软与能源价格下行

氧化铝价格疲软（2025 年现货均价约 3100 元 / 吨）和能源成本下降（预计 2026 年再跌 5%），降低冶炼成本，允许铝价在更低水平运行。印尼冶炼厂成本较中国低 20%，低价下仍可维持生产。

四、市场分歧与风险提示

高盛观点与美银等机构对立（美银看涨至 3250 美元 / 吨），分歧源于对中国产能政策、印尼投产进度的判断差异。潜在风险包括印尼政策变动、新能源需求超预期、能源价格反弹等。

五、产业链影响与投资策略

印尼产能扩张将提升加工附加值，但面临出口压力；投资者需关注 2026 年价格支撑位（2100 美元 / 吨）及印尼投产节奏，长期跟踪中国绿电铝成本优势，把握周期转换中的结构性机会。

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高盛铝价展望：印尼产能过剩施压 2026 年触底，长期或回升至 2150-2550 美元区间

一、价格预测调整：短期承压与长期平衡

二、印尼产能扩张：政策驱动与供需冲击

三、成本压力：氧化铝疲软与能源价格下行

四、市场分歧与风险提示

五、产业链影响与投资策略

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