铝冶炼行业2025：绿色转型驱动结构性增长新周期

基础金属	铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁
稀有金属	稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒
新能源	锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

基础金属

铜电解铜铜精矿铜管铜棒废铜铜排铜合金精铜杆再生铜杆铜板带铝铝土矿氧化铝电解铝铝辅料铝棒铝合金锭废铝铝杆铝型材铝板卷铅铅精矿铅锭铅蓄电池再生精铅还原铅废铅蓄电池铅合金锌锌精矿电解锌锌合金氧化锌锌粉锡锡精矿锡锭锡材镁

稀有金属

稀土稀土矿稀土氧化物稀土金属钕铁硼 稀散金属锑铋铟锗镓硒钽锆 贵金属白银钨钨精矿 APT(仲钨酸铵)钨粉碳化钨钨酸钠钨条钨铁钨材钼钼精矿工业氧化钼钼铁钼化工高纯三氧化钼钼金属钛钛精矿钛渣四氯化钛海绵钛钛金属钛白粉硒

新能源

锂锂矿锂化合物金属锂镍镍矿镍铁精炼镍镍盐高冰镍 MHP 钴电解钴钴粉氯化钴四氧化三钴硫酸钴钴中间品氧化钴碳酸钴钴酸锂锰锰矿电解锰电池级硫酸锰 锂电正负极三元前驱体磷酸铁正极材料石油焦针状焦包覆沥青人造石墨硅碳负极硅氧负极硅

铝冶炼行业2025：绿色转型驱动结构性增长新周期

2025-06-11 11:11:39 来源：北方有色网责任编辑：王欣悦

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一、价格与供需：政策支撑下小幅上行

LME铝价指数升至76.1（月涨5个点），受国际关税波动与国内稳增长政策推动，全球供需改善叠加我国去库加速，铝价呈现韧性。氧化铝产量因前期产能释放主动回调（指数降5.1个点），电解铝成本下移但行业仍处分化，绿电冶炼企业成本优势显著，政策明确2027年清洁能源占比目标30%，加速产能向风光富集区转移。

二、投资与产能：聚焦绿色升级与循环经济

铝冶炼投资持续高位（指数206.9，连涨三月），企业加码绿色冶炼技术与再生铝产能，预计2025年再生铝产量达1150万吨。产能严格控制在4500万吨红线内，新疆、内蒙古等绿电优势区域成转移热点，西南地区绿电铝产能占比有望超35%，行业向低碳化、集约化转型。

三、需求端：传统弱复苏与新兴领域爆发

房地产销售面积指数降33.5个点，降幅收窄显边际改善；新能源成核心增量——新能源车单车用铝250kg（燃油车1.5倍），2025年需求或达300万吨，光伏、电网投资分别带动铝需求550万吨、200万吨增量。出口受美国关税压制（指数-61.8），但东南亚、非洲市场拓展成效初显，高附加值产品出口占比提升至18%。

四、风险与挑战：成本、政策双重承压

铝土矿进口依存超70%，矿价、电价波动直接影响冶炼成本；2025年纳入全国碳市场后，火电铝企业面临454-756元/吨碳成本压力，欧盟碳关税亦构成长期挑战。此外，氧化铝产能过剩压力加剧，需警惕阶段性供需失衡风险。

五、展望：在结构性机遇中向“绿”而行

预计行业下半年维持“偏热”运行，2025年电解铝产量约4450万吨，再生铝占比17.7%。政策驱动的绿电替代与新能源需求爆发为核心动能，企业需通过技术创新（如低碳冶炼）与市场多元化应对风险，在新能源汽车、电池箔等高端领域挖掘增长空间。

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铝冶炼行业2025：绿色转型驱动结构性增长新周期

一、价格与供需：政策支撑下小幅上行

二、投资与产能：聚焦绿色升级与循环经济

三、需求端：传统弱复苏与新兴领域爆发

四、风险与挑战：成本、政策双重承压

五、展望：在结构性机遇中向“绿”而行

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